Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023

Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Alabama -14.5, MS State +14.5; Over/Under:  47 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Alabama -14.5, MS State +14.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Alabama -14.5, MS State +14.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Alabama Crimson Tide:  3-1 (1-0) (3rd place, SEC West)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  2-2 (0-2) (7th place, SEC West)

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Alabama Crimson Tide:  won their last game at home against the Mississippi Rebels 24-10.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost their last game on the road against the South Carolina Gamecocks 37-30.

Alabama is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Ole Miss 24-10. Jalen Milroe was the starting QB and he completed 17/21 passes for 225 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jase McClellan led the team in rushing yards with 105 and 1 TD. Jalen Hale led the receivers with 63 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Jihaad Campbell led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Dallas Turner led the defense in sacks with 2. Terrion Arnold came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against South Carolina 37-30. Will Rogers was the starting QB and he completed 30/48 passes for 487 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 27 and 1 TD. Lideatrick Griffin led the receivers with 256 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Nathan Pickering led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Nathan Pickering led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 14.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama is 3-1 this season but they looked a lot better in their last game at home against Ole Miss. They still have a really good defense that isn't going to give up many points, it is just their offense that needs some work. Mississippi State has been terrible in their games though and Alabama's offense will be able to move the ball in this game. MS State put up a good fight on the road against South Carolina in their last game but they were also blown out in their home game before that by LSU and LSU's offense has had their own struggles this season. Mississippi State is going to give up points in this game and they don't have a great offense that will be able to crack this Bama defense. Alabama's defense will be able to keep any lead they get in the game and hold down this Mississippi State offense as Alabama pulls away more in the game. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game. 

Alabama Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 31 MS State 13.

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Alabama Crimson Tide: 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of 14.5 to 17 points. 27-15 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 40-21 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders. 6-3 OVER as a road favorite of 14.5 to 17 points.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-11 ATS as a home underdog of 14.5 to 21 points. 8-16 ATS after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game. 11-6 OVER in home games. 11-6 OVER after playing a conference game. 

Alabama Crimson Tide:  D. Lawson (LB) Ques Sat - Ankle. E. Henderson Jr. (WR) Out indefinitely - Hip.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  J. Marks (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. S. Price (RB) Ques Sat - Leg. J. Albert (S) out for season - Knee. G. Spivey (TE) out for season - Eligibility. S. Traore (TE) Out indefinitely - Eligibility.

"This is the first SEC road game. This is actually a bigger challenge for us than the last two games in my opinion, in terms of this team is very physical, very aggressive on defense, create a lot of negative plays, got a lot of starters back. They know their system. They know their scheme. They play very, very well. Zach Arnett, it's his system, he's a very good defensive coach. As the head coach he's done a really good job there." - Nick Saban on his team’s upcoming game against MS State this week.

“It starts with practice. You find out a lot about a person when things don’t go right. I practiced as hard as I ever practiced. Keep working on it.” - Will Rogers after their loss against South Carolina in their last game.

WR Benson, Malik  

WR Burton, Jermaine

WR Bond, Isaiah 

TE Dippre, CJ 

QB Milroe, Jalen 

RB McClellan, Jase 

WR Robinson, Justin 

WR Thomas, Zavion 

WR Griffin, Lideatrick 

TE Goede, Ryland 

QB Rogers, Will 

RB Marks, Jo'Quavious

Passing: J. Milroe (674)

Rushing: J. MccLellan (263)

Receiving: J. Burton (189)

Touchdowns: J. Milroe (2)

Passing: W. Rogers (979)

Rushing: J. Marks (352)

Receiving: L. Griffin (388)

Touchdowns: J. Marks (4)

Coaches:

Alabama Crimson Tide: Nick Saban (17th season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Zach Arnett (2nd season)