Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/29/2025

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Venue:  Humphrey Coliseum, Mississippi State, MS

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Alabama +1, MS State -1; Over/Under:  166 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Alabama +1, MS State -1; Over/Under:  166 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Alabama +1, MS State -1; Over/Under:  166 points

Alabama Crimson Tide:  17-3 (6-1) (2nd place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  16-4 (4-3) (7th place, SEC)

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Alabama Crimson Tide:  4-1  last 5

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  2-3  last 5

Alabama is entering this game with a 17-3 record overall, a 6-1 record in conference games, and they are 5-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the LSU Tigers in their last game. Aden Holloway led the team in points per game in that game with 19 while Mouhamed Dioubate was next on the team with 14. Clifford Omoruyi, Mark Sears, and Labaron Philon each led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Clifford Omoruyi led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 44.3% from the field, 30.4% from 3-point range, and 79.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 90.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 78.5 PPG against them. Alabama has an ATS record of 11-9 this season and their O/U record is 10-9-1.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 16-4 record overall, a 4-3 conference record, and they are 8-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the South Carolina Gamecocks in their last game. Riley Kugel led the team in points in that game with 15 while KeShawn Murphy was next on the team with 13. Cameron Matthews and Josh Hubbard each led the team in assists with 5 in that game while RJ Melendez and Shawn Jones Jr. each led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 41.8% from the field, 23.1% from 3-point range, and 72.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 80.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.5 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 9-11 this season and their O/U record is 10-10.

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 1 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama has looked really good in their games this season with their 17-3 record overall and their 6-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have been a great road team this year with their 5-1 road record and they are one of the best teams in the nation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked really good in their games this season with their 16-4 record overall and their 4-3 conference record which has them right in the middle of the SEC. They have looked great on their home court too with their 8-1 home record. Mississippi State is also a ranked team like Alabama, but they are not ranked as high as Alabama as Alabama is a top 5 team in the nation. Alabama is coming off a win over LSU in their last one and they have the momentum on their side with 3 wins in a row. Mississippi State is also coming off a win in their last one, but they needed overtime to beat South Carolina who is one of the worst teams in the SEC at the moment. Mississippi State has also struggled more with better teams in the conference as they have blowout losses on the road against Tennessee and Auburn and even have a home loss to Kentucky. Alabama has been road tested this season and they have proven themselves to be one of the best in the SEC, they have the talent to beat Mississippi State who is only 2-3 in their last 5 games. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game. 

Alabama Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, January 29, 2025 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 86 MS State 81.

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Alabama Crimson Tide: 7-2 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 28-20 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 10-4 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 9-3 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. 7-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 160 to 169.5. 25-15 OVER after playing a home game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-7 ATS off a road win. 5-14 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 0-7 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game. 6-2 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3. 

Alabama Crimson Tide:  D. Reid (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Mallette (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Wrightsell (G) Out - Achilles. N. Cunningham (F) Out - Redshirt.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  K. Clary (G) Out - Leg.

"I thought Sears had an unbelievable practice today. I thought the energy today – if everybody played as hard in the game as they did in practice today, I don’t think it would have been tied at the half. So can we get these guys to give max effort every single night out, every practice, every game?" - Nate Oats after benching Mark Sears against LSU.

"But you've just got to find ways. It wasn't pretty basketball for people that like the aesthetically pleasing game. It was hard on the eyes, for both teams for that matter." - Chris Jans after his team’s win against South Carolina in their last game. 

G. Nelson 

C. Omoruyi 

L. Philon 

M. Sears 

J. Stevenson

C. Harris 

J. Hubbard 

C. Matthews 

R. Melendez 

M. Nwoko

PPG: M. Sears (18.1)

APG: M. Sears (4.9)

Reb/G: G. Nelson (8.4)

PPG: J. Hubbard (16.3)

APG: C. Matthews (3.8)

Reb/G: K. Murphy (7.2)

Coaches:

Alabama Crimson Tide: Nate Oats (6th season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (3rd season)