Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Preview and Prediction - 10/16/2021

by Big Al Staff

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 16, 2021
Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS
Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Alabama -17.5, Mississippi State +17.5; Over/Under:  57.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Alabama -17, Mississippi State +17; Over/Under:  57.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Alabama -17, Mississippi State +17; Over/Under:  57.5 points
 

Season Record

Alabama Crimson Tide:  5-1 (1st place, SEC West)
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-2 (4th place, SEC West)
 
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Alabama Crimson Tide:  lost on the road on Oct. 9 against the Texas A&M Aggies 41-38.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  won on the road on Oct. 2 against the Texas A&M Aggies 26-22.
 
 
 

Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis

The Alabama team is coming into this college football game with a 5-1 record overall and they are 1-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup this year and they are already 2-1 in their conference games this season. Their 2 wins came against the Florida Gators and the Ole Miss Rebels while their 1 loss came against Texas A&M in their last game. They lost that game 41-38 in a game that they were trailing the entire time in and playing catch-up. Bryce Young played alright in that game but he also struggled at times as he completed 28/48 passes for 369 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. had a great day on the ground as he led the team in rushing yards with 147 on 24 carries but he was basically their entire running game in that one. Jameson Williams led the team in receiving with 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 receptions while John Metchie was right behind him with 88 yards on 7 receptions. Overall, it was a pretty good day for the receiving corps. Brian Branch led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded a sack in that game but DeMarcco Hellams did come away with 1 interception. They have scored 266 points in their first 6 games averaging 44.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 132 points against them allowing 22 PPG. Their offense is averaging 472.5 YPG while Alabama’s defense is allowing 300.8 YPG.
 
 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis

Mississippi State is coming into this game with a 3-2 record overall in their regular season games and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 3rd conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 1-1 in their conference games this season. Their 1 loss came against the LSU Tigers while their win came against Texas A&M in their last game. They were on a bye last week so they have had an extra week to prepare for this game. QB Will Rogers played a great game in their last one as he completed 46/59 passes for 408 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Dillon Johnson led the team in rushing with 19 yards on 6 carries but they did not really have a run game in that one at all. Makai Polk led the receivers with 126 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 receptions. Nathaniel Watson led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones while Emmanuel Forbes and Martin Emerson were both right behind him with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted one each. Watson, Nathan Pickering, and Tyrus Wheat all had 1 sack each in that game while Fred Peters came away with the only interception for the defense in that one. They have scored 139 points in their first 5 games averaging 27.8 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 125 points against them allowing 25 PPG. Their offense is averaging 428.6 YPG while Mississippi State’s defense is allowing 318.4 YPG. 
 

 

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction

Mississippi State is coming into this game as a 17 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. They have not looked the best in their games this season but they are definitely scoring points on offense and putting up a good enough fight to keep their games close. Their biggest loss this season was by 3 points. Alabama has not been looking that great on defense in their recent games and they have been struggling in their conference games so far. The only game they played well in was against Ole Miss with a 21 point win but they still allowed 21 points on defense. They only beat the Gators by 2 points and in their only road conference game this season they lost by 3. The best bet to place in this game is on Mississippi State to cover the spread here as they will at least keep this game close.
 
Alabama Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 16, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 42 Mississippi State 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Alabama Crimson Tide: 191-180 ATS in all games. 50-43 ATS as a road favorite. 72-53 ATS in road games. 128-119 ATS against conference opponents. 128-111 ATS after playing a conference game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 166-175 ATS in all games. 88-91 ATS as an underdog. 37-39 ATS as a home underdog. 85-87 ATS in home games. 115-120 ATS against conference opponents.
 

Key Injuries

 
Alabama Crimson Tide:  D. Sanders (LB) Ques Sat - Hand injury. C. Wheaton (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. J. MccLellan (RB) out for season - Knee injury.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  None.
 

Players to Watch

 
Alabama Crimson Tide: Brian Robinson Jr. is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a good game where he had almost 150 rushing yards and he will be looking to continue that here. His team is coming off of a loss so look for him to play even better in this game and do what he needs to to get a win for his team.
 
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Makai Polk is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards this season. He is coming off of a game where he had over 100 receiving yards and he will be looking to carry that momentum over through their bye and into this game. Look for him to get a lot of passes thrown his way in this game. 
 

Notable Quotes

 
"There were a lot of issues." - Nick Saban on their loss to Texas A&M in their last game.
 
 
"I think we're doing special things. I think the program's going in the right direction and tonight was a huge step toward that." - Mike Leach after their win on the road against Texas A&M.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Metchie III, John 
WR Williams, Jameson 
WR Bolden, Slade 
TE Latu, Cameron 
QB Young, Bryce 
RB Robinson Jr., Brian 
 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Heath, Malik 
WR Polk, Makai 
WR Calvin, Jamire 
WR Williams, Austin 
QB Rogers, Will 
RB Marks, Jo'quavious 

Statistical Leaders

 
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: B. Young (1734)
Rushing: B. Robinson Jr. (526)
Receiving: J. Williams (510)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson Jr. (6)
Sacks: P. Mathis (3.5)
Tackles: D. Hellams (23)
 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (1862)
Rushing: D. Johnson (149)
Receiving: M. Polk (430)
Touchdowns: J. Walley (4)
Sacks: R. Charlton (2)
Tackles: E. Forbes (19)
 
Coaches:
Alabama Crimson Tide: Nick Saban (15th season)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mike Leach (2nd season)
 

Weather Forecast

69 degrees F sunny, 54% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 12 mph wind speeds N.


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