by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Mar 25, 2026
Game Time: 7:35 pm ET, Friday, March 27, 2026
Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: TBS, truTV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Alabama +9.5, Michigan -9.5; Over/Under: 174.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Alabama +9.5, Michigan -9.5; Over/Under: 174.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Alabama +10.5, Michigan -10.5; Over/Under: 174.5 points
Season Record
Alabama Crimson Tide: 25-9 (13-5) (2nd place, SEC)
Michigan Wolverines: 33-3 (19-1) (1st place, Big Ten)
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Recent Form
Alabama Crimson Tide: 3-2 last 5
Michigan Wolverines: 4-1 last 5
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines Preview and Analysis
Alabama is entering this game with a 25-9 record overall, a 13-5 record in conference games, and they are 6-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in their last game. Latrell Wrightsell Jr. led the team in points in that game with 24 while Houston Mallette was next on the team with 15. Labaron Philon Jr. led the team in assists with 12 in that game while Houston Mallette led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 44.1% from the field, 45.2% from 3-point range, and 73.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 91.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 82.5 PPG against them. Alabama has an ATS record of 15-18 this season and their O/U record is 17-15-1.
Michigan is entering this game with a 33-3 record overall, a 19-1 conference record, and they are 8-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Saint Louis Billikens in their last game. Yaxel Lendeborg led the team in points in that game with 25 while Aday Mara was next on the team with 16. Elliot Cadeau led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Morez Johnson Jr. led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 55.7% from the field, 47.8% from 3-point range, and 69.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 87.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.6 PPG against them. Michigan has an ATS record of 16-20 this season and their O/U record is 15-21.
Alabama vs Michigan Prediction
The current betting odds have Michigan listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan has looked great in their games this season with their 33-3 record overall and their 19-1 conference record which had them right at the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great in their neutral site games too with their 8-2 record in those. Meanwhile, Alabama has looked really good in their games this season with their 25-9 record overall and their 13-5 conference record which had them right near the top of the SEC. They are also 6-3 in their neutral site games this season. Alabama is off a big win over Texas Tech in their last one and really ran them out of the building, but Texas Tech has been limping without their best player over the last few weeks and that result was a long time coming. Alabama was also shooting lights out in that one, but they live and die by the 3 pointer so they could get into some real trouble here if they aren't hitting their shots. They don't defend that well either, so Michigan is going to put up points in different ways with one of the best offenses in the nation, and they are much better on the defensive end to slow down this Alabama offense too. Michigan played in some tighter games against Howard and Saint Louis in the 1st half, but they broke both of those games open in the 2nd half and they were never really close in the end. Michigan didn't win the Big Ten Tournament, but they won the regular season as the best team by far and their focus is on a much bigger prize right now. Michigan has been showing why they are one of the best teams in the nation and even with that great offense, Alabama's lack of defense will be their downfall in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan to cover the spread in this game.
Alabama Michigan Prediction: Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 27, 2026 (7:35 pm ET start time) is Michigan 91 Alabama 77.
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NCAAB Betting Trends
Alabama Crimson Tide: 8-3 ATS in a post-season tournament game. 30-20 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 18-9 OVER as an underdog. 16-8 OVER in all tournament games. 24-13 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%).
Michigan Wolverines: 21-31 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 16-24 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 assists/game or more. 2-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 5-1 OVER against SEC opponents. 6-1 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game.
Key Injuries
Alabama Crimson Tide: A. Holloway (G) Questionable - Personal. K. Bristow (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Hannah (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Onyejiaka (C) Out - Undisclosed.
Michigan Wolverines: L. Cason (G) Out - Knee. W. Grady (G) Out - Undisclosed. R. Liburd (G) Out - Redshirt.
Notable Quotes
“I thought these guys were about the right stuff. I’m super happy for these seniors. This is the fourth straight Sweet 16 we’ve been to. These guys know what winning takes. Trelly has been here three years, been part of a Final Four and an Elite Eight, now a Sweet 16 team, we’re trying to make a deeper run.” - Nate Oats after his team’s win against Texas Tech in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday.
“I thought we had some problems tonight as well. There were several times that St. Louis was on the verge, and we answered. We looked more determined, we looked more comfortable.” - Dusty May after his team’s win against Saint Louis in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Alabama Crimson Tide
A. Allen
A. Holloway
L. Jemison
L. Philon
A. Sherrell
Michigan Wolverines
N. Burnett
E. Cadeau
M. Johnson
Y. Lendeborg
A. Mara
Statistical Leaders
Alabama Crimson Tide
PPG: Labaron Philon Jr. (21.6)
APG: Labaron Philon Jr. (5)
Reb/G: Amari Allen (7)
Michigan Wolverines
PPG: Yaxel Lendeborg (14.7)
APG: Elliot Cadeau (5.7)
Reb/G: Morez Johnson Jr. (7.3)
Coaches:
Alabama Crimson Tide: Nate Oats (7th season)
Michigan Wolverines: Dusty May (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
