by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 03, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -13.5
FanDuel: Alabama -13.5
BetMGM: Alabama -13.5
Caesars: Alabama -13.5
Season record
No. 6 Alabama: 7-1 (4-1 SEC)
No. 10 LSU: 6-2 (4-1 SEC)
We're coming down to the wire in what should be an exciting final month of the college football season. The conference championship chases are on, bowl games are to be decided, and who gets into the College Football Playoff is anybody's guess to this point. If you're still trying to figure out who's the best to play at this point of the year, look no further than our champion handicappers leading the way in the college football world. Our own Kyle Hunter is 23-8-0 over the last month, while Brian Bitler is 21-13-0 in the run. Kyle's reeled in a net profit of over $14,000. Now you feel like you should be getting on the action, huh? Make sure you go check out bigal.com to see all of the work our champion handicappers are trying to do to get money in YOUR pocket with our selections. Make sure to hit up our Best Bets page for more!
Alabama - LSU preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Alabama: won 30-6 vs. No. 24 Mississippi State
LSU: won 45-20 vs. No. 7 Ole Miss
The LSU Fightin' Brian Kelly Accents are strong once again! I don't know whether to cheer in adoration or shake my fist at the sky and complain like an old man yelling at clouds. Imagine my surprise when doing research this week and find out they're No. 10 in the country!
Now the Tigers get the Alabama Crimson Tide this week. Of course it's the prospect of Alabama that will likely end the good fortune that has helped LSU over the last few weeks. Sure, there was that 40-13 loss at home to the top team in the country, but everything else since then has been great, like winning against Florida ... and Auburn ... and New Mexico?
Okay, so maybe the top-10 ranking the College Football Playoff Committee gave LSU is a bit generous. It might have been validated following the 45-20 win over then-No. 7 Ole Miss two weeks ago, but at least LSU showed it can hang with these teams. We're about to find out very quickly if the Tigers are deserving of such praise.
Jayden Daniels did have a tremendous game in the 45-20 win over Ole Miss, throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns while running for 121 and three scores in a dominant effort from the Arizona State transfer, especially in the second half.
"I expected that," Daniels said with 11 touchdowns in the last two games. "I know what I'm capable of doing."
I think we all did, but there's a matter of talking and actually executing. And for the most part, that wasn't the case in Arizona State. Maybe that had something to do with Herm Edwards, but that would be giving too much credit to the Fightin' Kelly Accents.
But in all seriousness, this is the biggest game for LSU to date. Not only do they have the chance to pull off an upset, but can still pass Alabama for the division lead and suddenly make the SEC a four-team race between Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss. If you had that in the final four to begin the year, put your hand down before you're cast to the Shadow Realm.
Yet if there was ever a time for Alabama to be taken down, it might be now with how the last three weeks have transpired. Alabama beat Texas A&M by 4, lost to Tennessee by giving up 52, and only won by 24 against Mississippi State at home. Bryce Young threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns.
''It wasn't always perfect execution. But to me, that's a start,'' Tide coach Nick Saban. ''It's kind of time to answer the bell and now the challenge is we need to build on that.''
Prediction
There comes a time where you just throw your hands up and admit you're wrong. You feel sorry about how you behaved and feel that it's time to make amends. If LSU wins this week, I will retire the Fightin' Accents and give Brian Kelly his flowers. I feel so confident that I think LSU can pull this off. Throw me a party in Baton Rouge if it happens. The fact Alabama couldn't slow down Hendon Hooker is a sign that if Daniels gets free, it's going to be a long day for this group. LSU by 6
The LSU Fightin' Brian Kelly Accents are strong once again! I don't know whether to cheer in adoration or shake my fist at the sky and complain like an old man yelling at clouds. Imagine my surprise when doing research this week and find out they're No. 10 in the country!
Now the Tigers get the Alabama Crimson Tide this week. Of course it's the prospect of Alabama that will likely end the good fortune that has helped LSU over the last few weeks. Sure, there was that 40-13 loss at home to the top team in the country, but everything else since then has been great, like winning against Florida ... and Auburn ... and New Mexico?
Okay, so maybe the top-10 ranking the College Football Playoff Committee gave LSU is a bit generous. It might have been validated following the 45-20 win over then-No. 7 Ole Miss two weeks ago, but at least LSU showed it can hang with these teams. We're about to find out very quickly if the Tigers are deserving of such praise.
Jayden Daniels did have a tremendous game in the 45-20 win over Ole Miss, throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns while running for 121 and three scores in a dominant effort from the Arizona State transfer, especially in the second half.
"I expected that," Daniels said with 11 touchdowns in the last two games. "I know what I'm capable of doing."
I think we all did, but there's a matter of talking and actually executing. And for the most part, that wasn't the case in Arizona State. Maybe that had something to do with Herm Edwards, but that would be giving too much credit to the Fightin' Kelly Accents.
But in all seriousness, this is the biggest game for LSU to date. Not only do they have the chance to pull off an upset, but can still pass Alabama for the division lead and suddenly make the SEC a four-team race between Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss. If you had that in the final four to begin the year, put your hand down before you're cast to the Shadow Realm.
Yet if there was ever a time for Alabama to be taken down, it might be now with how the last three weeks have transpired. Alabama beat Texas A&M by 4, lost to Tennessee by giving up 52, and only won by 24 against Mississippi State at home. Bryce Young threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns.
''It wasn't always perfect execution. But to me, that's a start,'' Tide coach Nick Saban. ''It's kind of time to answer the bell and now the challenge is we need to build on that.''
Prediction
There comes a time where you just throw your hands up and admit you're wrong. You feel sorry about how you behaved and feel that it's time to make amends. If LSU wins this week, I will retire the Fightin' Accents and give Brian Kelly his flowers. I feel so confident that I think LSU can pull this off. Throw me a party in Baton Rouge if it happens. The fact Alabama couldn't slow down Hendon Hooker is a sign that if Daniels gets free, it's going to be a long day for this group. LSU by 6
Betting trends
Alabama is 21-13 ATS as a favorite the last three years; 5-3 this season.
Alabama is 16-8 ATS after playing a conference game the last three years; 2-2 this season.
Alabama is 6-5 ATS off a conference home win over the last three years.
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last six following a game without committing a turnover.
LSU is 8-5 ATS as an underdog the last three years; 3-1 this season.
LSU is 13-9 ATS in conference games the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 1,906 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs -- 672 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jacorey Brooks -- 376 yards, 4 TD
LSU:
Passing: Jayden Daniels -- 1,812 yards, 12 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jayden Daniels -- 524 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Malik Nabers -- 455 yards, 1 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Alabama Crimson Tide - LSU Tigers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
