by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -17.5
FanDuel: Alabama -17
BetMGM: Alabama -17.5
Caesars: Alabama -17.5
Season record
No. 2 Alabama: 4-0 (1-0 SEC)
No. 20 Arkansas: 3-1 (1-1 SEC)
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
Alabama - Arkansas preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Alabama: won 55-3 vs. Vanderbilt
Arkansas: lost 23-21 vs. Texas A&M
The Alabama Crimson Tide needed these last two games against Louisiana-Monroe and Vanderbilt to get that awful taste from the Texas game out of their mouths. Since that 20-19 thriller in Austin on Sept. 10, Alabama has responded by outscoring its next two opponents 118-10. So, in short, typical Alabama dominance from that side. The Alabama defense has gotten off to a terrific start by giving up just 7.3 points per game over the first four weeks of the season. While the defense did what was expected and hold the Commodores to just 3 points, the offense did its thing. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns on 25 of 36 passing. Ja’Corey Brooks caught six passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns, as Alabama outgained Vanderbilt 628-129 and had 34 first downs to just nine for Vandy. It was a rough day for Skip Bayless’ alma mater.
The Alabama Crimson Tide needed these last two games against Louisiana-Monroe and Vanderbilt to get that awful taste from the Texas game out of their mouths. Since that 20-19 thriller in Austin on Sept. 10, Alabama has responded by outscoring its next two opponents 118-10. So, in short, typical Alabama dominance from that side. The Alabama defense has gotten off to a terrific start by giving up just 7.3 points per game over the first four weeks of the season. While the defense did what was expected and hold the Commodores to just 3 points, the offense did its thing. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns on 25 of 36 passing. Ja’Corey Brooks caught six passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns, as Alabama outgained Vanderbilt 628-129 and had 34 first downs to just nine for Vandy. It was a rough day for Skip Bayless’ alma mater.
''It definitely felt good to get some big plays, get some chunk plays,'' Young said. ''We pride ourselves in being an explosive offense.''
That’s what’s ultimately going to get Alabama back to the national title game: strong defense and explosive plays. As long as Young is slinging the ball in that capacity and winning games like that, Alabama will be tough to beat and of course challenge Georgia once again. The 385 yards were the most Young has thrown in a game since the 421 he put up on Georgia in the SEC title game last year.
''I think it was kind of our plan going into this game that we would spread these guys out more and try to attack them in the secondary,'' Alabama coach Nick Saban said. ''We thought we had some pretty good matchups.''
Alabama has had only one true test on the road this year, and it was their toughest game of the year by far. Going on the road to Fayetteville is not going to be the easiest of tasks, especially with the opponent not in the best of moods after how last week ended.
The Arkansas Razorbacks let a golden opportunity slip away last week in the neutral site game at AT&T Stadium, losing 23-21 to Texas A&M. It was a chance for Arkansas to jump into the top 10 and make this game more worthwhile within the SEC. But now, Arkansas has to rebound or risk falling out of the top 25 if they lose to Alabama at home. Last year’s meeting was a one-handed win at the hands of Alabama when Arkansas was making a run near the top. But another year with KJ Jefferson, a much more experienced offense, no less, should make this game more competitive – not to mention the home crowd will help. Jefferson had 276 total yards and accounted for all three touchdowns, but Texas A&M’s defense was a major point of emphasis with the game on the line. Unfortunately, part of that was Jefferson fumbling on the 3-yard line and Texas A&M bringing it back for a touchdown.
“We can’t do that on first down. If it was fourth down, that’s a different story. Unfortunately, it just got popped out," Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman said. "He wanted to score, and that happened.”
Prediction
Arkansas is going to put up a fight being at home, but Alabama is just too tough and should cover with no issue. Alabama is as high as 17.5-point favorites for this one and it might be late, but the Tide should be able to cover. Alabama by 21
Betting trends
Alabama is 19-11 ATS as a favorite in its last 30 instances.
Alabama is 14-6 ATS following a conference game the past three years.
Alabama is 7-7 ATS following a home game in the last three years.
Arkansas is 9-5 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.
Arkansas is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off an under.
Statistical leaders
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 1,029 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Jase McClellan -- 245 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Traeshon Holden -- 214 yards, 4 TD
Arkansas:
Passing: KJ Jefferson -- 941 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Raheim Sanders -- 508 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Matt Landers -- 230 yards
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
