Game Time: 9:50 PM  ET, Thursday, March 17th, 2022

Venue: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

Where to Watch:  TBS

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  UCLA -13.5; O/U 128.5

Caesars:  Spread:  UCLA -14; O/U 128.5

VegasInsider:  Spread:  UCLA -13.5; O/U 128.5

FanDuel: Spread: UCLA -14; O/U 128.5

# 13 Akron: 24-9 

# 4 UCLA: 25-7

A round one NCAA tournament matchup.  The NCAA tournament usually means close games, shocking upsets, that secretary in your office that has never watched a basketball game, but somehow wins the company wide bracket challenge!  It is so frustrating to be a fan!  Big swimming, shocking outcomes… Someone you have picked for your Final Four will get knocked out very early!  Like that time you picked Vermont to go deep because of David Coppenwrath!  Yet… if you can breathe deep and take emotion out of it… and look closely at the numbers and the “most likely” outcomes.  The NCAA tournament is one of the best gambling stretches of the year!  Skip the bracket… BET THE GAMES.  Lots of opportunity to grow your bank roll.  

The Akron Zips won the Mid-American Conference Championship by beating Buffalo, then Toledo, then Kent State… all 3 games were wins ATS.  They are currently on an 8-game winning streak. They have won 8 of their last ten… going 7-3 ATS during that stretch. Leading scorer 6’8 forward Ali Ali is all offense, but a little anemic in the other categories. In his 3rd season with Akron he has grown from a 1 ppg Freshman to the team’s go to scorer. Ali hit 38.5% from the three point line and has taken exactly 104 this season  making 40.  The most effective Zip on the court is 6’7 forward Enrique Freeman, also in his 3rd season he pulls down 11 rpg while pouring in 13 ppg.  Guards Xavier Casstaneda and Greg Tribble are going to have the toughest game they can remember.  The UCLA guards Johnny Juzang and Tyger Campbell are seething at having lost the Pac-12 Championship to Arizona.  They have been bouncing off the walls looking for someone to take it all out on. The Zips do not have enough talent to measure up to UCLA… but let’s look at the numbers and see if they have enough heart to cover the spread?

The UCLA Bruins lost the Pac-12 Championship to the Arizona Wildcats (who are looking like an eventual Champ with every game they play) after beating the USC Trojans to get there.  All three teams are good, all three are in the tournament.  The Bruins have lost only 2 of their last ten games.  The PAC-12 Champ game and against Oregon back on February 24th.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  UCLA excels at offense. When UCLA goes on a scoring roll it does not seem as if anyone can stop or slow them down.  The team employs a 4 guard attack since three of those guards are actually big guys.  Leading scorer Johnny Juzang is having a down year at 16 ppg, he was expecting more to show pro scouts and make the jump this year if he could be assured a mid-first round pick.  Last season Johnny exploded in the tournament and led the team to the Final Four where they lost to Gonzaga by a single bucket in the closing seconds.  The Bruins are better this year… Unfortunately so is Gonzaga… and so is Arizona.  Look for scrappy Jaime Jaquez Jr, a 6'7 guard that rotates down to the forward spot on defense.  Jaime has been a Swiss Army knife of do-it-all this season.  He is 13.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.2 apg while playing quality defense.  The weak spot in the Bruin armor is at the center position where 6’10 Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson holds down the fort.  If your team is going to employ a 4 guard attack anchored by a big guy in the middle… you would want a much better statline from that big guy.  Fortunately for the Bruins the Zips have a couple big guys that are no match for Myles’s game.  PG Tyger Campbell single-handedly lost the Pac-12 Championship to the Arizona Wildcats.  UCLA had the lead for a while… Then Tyger started dribbling (too much) on possessions.  The result was a lot of terrible passes and shots… a lot of turnovers.  The harder Tyger tried to fix the avalanche of mistakes… the worse it got!  If the Bruins coaches are good at breaking down film… Tyger has either been given a talk about passing early and running a real offense… or UCLA will be vulnerable all game long.

Al McMordie was 0-2 in the NBA yesterday, and is 78-52 his last 130. Big Al was 28-19-1 in the Conference Tourneys, and was 4-0-1 in last year's NIT. Here, pick up Big Al's Tuesday NIT Tourney Winner out of a super 18-2 ATS angle. Pick it up right now, and HIT IT HARD! Don't miss out! Get Big Al’s pick!!  It's available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. Also don’t miss Monday’s picks!!  All your NCAA basketball needs for the entire college basketball season!  All your needs in any sport for that matter!   

Akron is 24-9 on the season, but 17-14 ATS.  They have logged 14 Overs, and 17 Unders.  They are 4-2 on neutral courts.

UCLA is 25-7 on the season, but 17-14-1 ATS.  They have notched 16 Overs and 16 Unders.  They are 3-2 on neutral courts.

The Zips are 170th in scoring with 71.1 ppg, 151st in rebounds with 32.6 per game, and 164th in AST/TO ratio with 1.0.  On defense they rank 31st while holding opponents to 62.9 ppg.

The Bruins are 51st in scoring with 76.7 ppg, 65th in rebounds with 34.3 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.  On defense they rank 45th on defense while holding opponents to 64.3 ppg.

Our prediction for Thursday, March 17th is… UCLA 80 - Akron 64

This should be a blowout.  UCLA is loaded with offense AND defense.  UCLA is loaded with guys good enough to be pros if only they could have some more big showings in the tournament.  

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Akron is 17-6 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 16-5 ATS when playing just their 3rd game in a week the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 6-0 ATS in NCAA tournament games the last 3 seasons.

Akron: No injuries to report

UCLA: F Mac Etienne (knee) Out indefinitely 

Zips: Greg Tribble, Xavier Cataneda, Mikal Dawson, Ali Ali, Enrique Freeman

Bruins: Jules Bernard, Johnny Juzang, Tyger Campbell, Myles Johnson, Jaime Jaquez Jr

Zips

Points: Ali Ali 14.2

Assists: Ali Ali 2.6

Rebounds: Enrique Freeman 10.8

Steals: KJ Walton 1.3

Blocks: Aziz Bandaogo 1.3

Bruins

Points: Johnny Juzang 16

Assists: Tyger Campbell 4.2

Rebounds: Jaime Jaquez Jr 5.8

Steals: Jaylen Clark 1.2

Blocks: Myles Johnson 1.3