Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Picks Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/02/2021

by James Q

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Picks Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/02/2021

Game Time:  Noon ET, Saturday, October 9th, 2021
Venue:  Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio
Where to Watch: ESPN+

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: BG -13; Over/Under:  44.5 points
Circa:  Spread: BG -13; Over/Under:  44.5 points
VegasInsider:  Spread:  BG -13; Over/Under: 44.5 points

Season Record

Akron: 1-4 (Mid-American)
BG: 2-3  (MAC)
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Akron vs Bowling Green Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
The Zips have played a couple big programs to start the season.  Their stats have suffered as a result.  In college football sometimes the opponents come with a big enough paycheck to gladly accept the underdog role.  To start the season the Zips got blown out by Auburn 60-10.  In game 2 the Zips got beaten soundly by Temple 45-24.  In game 3 the Zips played the small school and program Bryant and won 35-14.  In game 4 the Zips got another blowout loss and another big payday against Ohio State 59-7.  Game 5 was against the struggling Ohio and the Zips again lost 34-17.  1-4 to start 2021.  Ohio was their first MAC East opponent and this  Bowling Green team will be their second.  They are not on the path to the National Championship and they won’t spoil anyone else’s chance at a national title… still it would be nice to win a few if just to save face in the MAC.
The Bowling Green Falcons have taken a wild route to get to 2-3.  They took the payday in game 1 as well and dutifully got blown out by Tennessee 38-6.  But then in game 2 they lost to the South Alabama Jaguars 22-19, it was close but indefensible.  The Falcons finally got a win in game 3, 27-10 over Murray State. Game 4 was the shocker.  In Game 4 the Bowling Green Falcons beat Minnesota 14-10… yes the same Minnesota that is a big program and was good last season.  The Falcons started Mac play in Game 5 with a loss to Kent State 27-20.  So on the one hand we have a squad that can lose to South Alabama and Kent State… but then beat Minnesota?... Something is going very wrong in Minnesota or maybe flukes just happen?

Offensive Analysis

Akron is scoring 19.8 points per game on 323.4 yards per game.  QB DJ Irons is 71-103 for 68.9% passing 8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions.  DJ also leads the Zips in Rushing.  DJ has also had a wild ride with a QBR of 89.4 against Bryant and a QBR of 8.4 against Temple. Back-up QB Kato Nelson has thrown 20-34.  At Wide receiver the Zips have a 1-2 punch with Michael Mathison and Konata Mumpfield.

Bowling Green is scoring a low, low 17.2 points per game (those are clearance prices) on 277 yards per game.  The Falcons are 7 of 7 on field goal attempts and they need to be having only scored 9 touchdowns on the year.  QB Matt McDonald is 118-178 for 66.3 %, 1,149 yards for 3 TDs and 3 INTs.  Jaison Patterson is the running back in the much neglected running game.  At Bowling Green it seems to be all about passing.  Receivers Tyrone Broden, Austin Osborne, and Christian Sims all have over 200 yards with backup RB Taron Keith also pulling down 11 catches for 145 yards.  These would be great numbers for the passing game if they also had 800 accumulated rushing yards… but they don't. They only have 236.  If they can’t balance this offense they won’t be winning many games.

Defensive Analysis

Akron is the 116th ranked defense (of 130) in the FBS.  They give up 454.2 yards per game.  They have also given up 28 touchdowns ini 5 games.  Now, they have taken on some bigger programs and been the recipient of some blowout losses, but giving up 5 ½ touchdowns a game is tough to overcome.

Bowling Green is the 47th ranked defense in FBS.  They give up 334.2 yards per game and 12 total touchdowns so far.  It would seem that they are a mile above Akron on defense, but this isn’t an opinion bestowed by a panel of judges looking at getty images of pass coverage and watching all home games… These are raw numbers.  Raw numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt when you come to the realization the quality of opponents isn’t factored.  Neither team has played Georgia or Penn State and neither team should, but Akron has reached higher and gotten smacked down harder.

Flames vs Blazers Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, October 9th is…. Bowling Green 27 - Akron 13

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NCAAF Betting Trends

Akron is 3-20 ATS the last 3 seasons.
Akron is 2-10 ATS when playing after a conference game, last three seasons.
Akron is 1-8 ATS when playing a team with a losing record, last three seasons.
Bowling Green is 5-0 ATS this season.
Bowling Green is 4-10 ATS against conference opponents, last 3 seasons.


Key Injuries

Akron:  RB Anthony Williams Jr (undisclosed) Questionable.
Bowling Green:  RB Trevon Reymore (knee) out for season.

Players to Watch

It’s all about the quarterbacks in this one.  Can DJ Irons mix passing and scrambling to keep Bowling Green on their heels all day?… or can Matt McDonald hit all of his receivers in a game that should have him facing very little pass rush.


Starting Lineups

Akron:  QB DJ Irons, RB Jonzell Norrils, TE Tristian Brank, WR Michael Mathison, WR George Qualls Jr, WR Konata Mumpfield, LT Xavior Gray, LG Nate Williams, C Ryan Beckman, RG Jordan Daniels, RT Owen Murphy

Bowling Green:  QB Matt McDonald, RB Terion Stewart, TE Andrew Bench, TE Christian Sims, WR Tyrone Broden, WR Austin Osborne, LT Jeremiah Banks-Wall, LG Cade Zimmerly,  Jalen Grant, RG Malone VanGorder, RT Jordan Murphy

Statistical Leaders

Passing: DJ Irons  797 yards
Rushing:  DJ Irons  240 yards
Receiving:  Michael Mathison 300 yards
Tackles:  Bubba Arslanian  43
Interceptions:  Charles Amankwaa 2

Bowling Green
Passing:  Matt McDonald  1,149
Rushing:  Jaison Patterson  120
Receiving: Tyrone Broden  247
Tackles:  Darren Anders  44
Interceptions:  Devin Taylor 1



Weather Forecast

Partly cloudy. high of 78*.  (weather not applicable in NJ, IL, Mi, TN, PA due to Global Warming) 

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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