Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack NCAA Basketball Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/19/2021

by James Q

Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack  Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/19/2021

 
Game Time: 9:00 PM  ET, Sunday, November, 19th, 2021
Venue:  Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
Where to Watch:  FS1
 

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Nevada -2; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Circa:  Spread: Nevada -2; Over/Under:  52.5 points
Caesars:  Spread: Nevada -2;  Over/Under:  52.5 points 
 
  

Season Record

Air Force: 4-2 conf, 7-3 overall (MWC)
Nevada: 4-2 conf, 7-3 overall (MWC)

The consensus in college football picks is in.  In this Friday night contest Air Force is  2-point underdogs to Nevada.  A small point spread for sure and most likely leaning Nevada’s way because they are the home team.  Before I slip into a major depression, I’m reminded that America is stronger than that… our Air Force Academy is built to teach our finest to travel to foreign lands and come out victorious!  A simple matchup of identical records in the Mountain West Conference requires a deep dive into the Air Force stats against the Nevada stats… not who is at home in Reno.  

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Air Force vs Nevada Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Air Force is 7-3 on the season while going 6-4 ATS.  They have logged 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  They are undefeated in road games ATS 4-0. The total points is set at 52.5 which has only hit Over in 1 Air Force game this season. 


Nevada is 7-3 on the season while going 7-3 ATS.  They have notched 6 Overs and 4 Unders.  They are a shocking 5-0 ATS at home.  The total points is set at 52.5 which has hit Over in 5 Nevada games this season.  
 

Offensive Analysis

The Air Force Academy is ranked 67th in the FBS in ppg with 28.3, 63rd in ypg with 407.8, and 129th in passing yards with 96.7 per game.  The AFA is next to last in air attack… that just doesn’t seem right.  The Air Force is a ground game.

Nevada has a strong quarterback in Carson Strong… even though it’s an obnoxious name.  Nev is ranked 24th in ppg with 34.9, 25th in ypg with 437.9, and 4th in passing yards with 373.7 ypg…. They are the Air Force’s opposite in that Nevada is ranked 129 in RUSHING OFFENSE with a teeny tiny 64.2 ypg.

Defensive Analysis
Nevada is 48th in the FBS on rush defense.  They give up 136 ypg and 13 TDs so far.

Air Force is 31st in passing defense so far this season.  They have given up 123.3 ypg and a slim 10 TDs.

Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction

Our prediction for Friday, November 19th is….   Nevada 36 - Air Force 24
 
Nevada will take this one just on the passing game alone.
 
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Air Force is 4-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.
Air Force is 6-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Nevada is 9-4 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons.
Nevada is 5-1 ATS against conference opponents this season.


Starting Lineups

AFA: QB Haaziq Daniels, RB DeAndre Hughes, TE Dalton King, WR Brandon Lewis, WR Dane Kinamon, LT Kaleb Holcomb, LG Hawk Wimmer, OC Benjamin Mercer, RG Wesley Ndago, RT Everett Smalley, FB Brad Roberts

Nev: QB Carson Strong, RB Toa Taua, WR Justin Lockhart, WR Romeo Doubs, WR Melquan Stovall, LT Jacob Garner, LG Jermaine Ledbetter, OC Tyler Orsini, RG Drew Cannon, RT Aaron Frost, 

 

Statistical Leaders

Air Force
Passing Yards: Haaziq Daniels 909
Rushing Yards: Brad Roberts: 1064
Receiving Yards: Brandon Lewis 424
Sacks: Vince Sanford: 6.5
Interceptions: Corvan Taylor 3

Nevada
Passing Yards: Carson Strong 3,547 
Rushing Yards: Toa Taua 558
Receiving Yards: Romeo Doubs 853
Sacks: Tristan Nichols 9.5
Interceptions: Daiyan Henley 4


COACHES
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James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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