Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 11, 2021
Venue:  Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Where to Watch:  CBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Falcons -5.5, Midshipmen +5.5; Over/Under:  40.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Falcons -5.5, Midshipmen +5.5; Over/Under:  41 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Falcons -6.5, Midshipmen +6.5; Over/Under:  40.5 points

Season Record

Air Force Falcons:  1-0 (1st place, MW Mountain)
Navy Midshipmen:  0-1 (10th place, AAC)
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Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Air Force Falcons:  won 1
Navy Midshipmen:  lost 1

Offensive Analysis

Last season the Falcons averaged a 55.7% completion percentage, 83.7 passing yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game through the air. They also averaged 305.7 rushing yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game on the ground. The Midshipmen were averaging a 46% completion percentage, 97.4 passing yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game through the air. They also averaged 177.7 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game on the ground.

Defensive Analysis

Last season the Falcons were allowing teams a 61.5% completion percentage, 166.8 passing yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game through the air. They also allowed 137.7 rushing yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game on the ground. The Midshipmen were allowing teams a 60.9% completion percentage, 180.8 passing yards, and 1.1 touchdowns per game through the air. They also allowed 204.7 rushing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game on the ground.


Falcons vs Midshipmen Prediction

The Air Force Falcons are coming into this college football game sitting in 1st place of the FBS Mountain West Conference Mountain Division with a 1-0 record. They won their season opener of the football schedule against Lafayette 35-14 but they are far from being an Alabama type team. The Air Force Academies Air Force football game will not be at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs. Haaziq Daniels did not do much in the passing game completing 3/5 passes for 50 yards. Brad Roberts led the team in rushing with 111 total yards on 25 carries. Micah Davis also had a great game rushing for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Daniels did not do much in the passing game but he managed to rush for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns in the game. Micah Davis and David Cormier were the only 2 players to catch a pass for them with 27 and 23 yards respectively. Zion Kelly led the way for the defense with 5 solo tackles and 1 assist while Caleb Humphrey recorded 1 sack as well as 4 solo tackles and 1 assist. Corvan Taylor had the 1 interception for them as well.

The Navy Midshipmen are coming into this matchup as the host and sitting in 10th place of the AAC with a 0-1 record. They lost their first game of the football season to Marshall 49-7. Navy had nothing going for them in the passing game with Maasai Maynor leading the way with 27 passing yards completing 2/6 passes. Tai Lavatai and Tyger Goslin both threw interceptions for them in that one. Their run game was alright with James Harris II leading the way with 80 rushing yards on 11 carries. Xavier Arline also played well with 76 rushing yards and 1 touchdown on 16 carries. Isaac Ruoss also racked up 63 rushing yards on 15 carries. Mychal Cooper and Tyger Goslin both had 2 receptions for 30 and 27 yards respectively. Mitchell West led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 3 assists while Michael McMorris had 3 solo tackles, 3 assists, and the only sack for them in the game. Kevin Brennan came away with the only interception for them as well. This Navy football game is against the Air Force team instead of the Cadets Army football team. The Black Knights will be in West Point against WKU this weekend instead of having the Army-Navy game that will be in December.

Neither team has much of a passing game and both lean very heavily on the run game. More running plays means longer drives and more clock burned. The Air Force Academy Falcons football team has a much stronger running game than their Navy opponents and likely come away with the win and the cover. That being said, considering the circumstantial situation of the game for them and all Americans, there will be a lot of respect and pride between both teams and it is likely that neither team blows the other out. This should also be a low scoring game giving the under some value for bettors as well with the latest lines. Neither of these teams are even thinking about the college football playoff.

Falcons Midshipmen Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 11, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start local time) is Falcons 17 Midshipmen 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Air Force Falcons: 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 9-7 ATS as a favorite.
Navy Midshipmen: 6-0 ATS after playing a non-conference game. 10-3 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.

Key  Injuries

Air Force Falcons:  None.
Navy Midshipmen:  None.

Players to Watch

Air Force Falcons: Brad Roberts is one player to watch in this game. Their poor passing game highlights how important he will be in this game. He rushed for over 100 yards in the last game and he will want to carry over that excellence here. 
Navy Midshipmen: Xavier Arline is one player to watch in this game and all of his home games. In the last game he got some snaps at quarterback for kicks and also rushed for over 70 yards and a touchdown. He is a bit of a dual threat although he does not pass the ball often. He will be a key player in this game if Navy is to move the ball down the field and score points.

Notable Quotes

“Last year they gave it to us pretty good. We definitely have a sick taste in our mouth after what happened last year. Our senior class doesn’t want to go out like that. It’s on all of us to get it together this week and be ready to play.” - Kevin Brennan on remembering last year’s game against them and wanting to get revenge for that loss.
“Very humbling, both personally and as a program, to pay respect to those who lost their lives on 9/11. Obviously, that day changed our country forever. A service academy game is always big no matter what date it’s played on. It’s a really heated rivalry that has gone back-and-forth.” - Ken Niumatalolo on the honor of being included in this kind of meaningful game.

Starting Lineups

Air Force Falcons
WR Cormier, David 
WR Davis, Micah 
TE Patterson, Kyle 
QB Daniels, Haaziq 
RB Hughes, DeAndre 
FB Roberts, Brad 
Navy Midshipmen
WR Walker, Mark 
WR Cooper, Mychal 
QB Arline, Xavier 
RB Warren, Chance 
RB Acie, Carlinos 
FB Ruoss, Isaac 

Statistics Leaders

Air Force Falcons
Passing: H. Daniels (50)
Rushing: B. Roberts (111)
Receiving: M. Davis (27)
Touchdowns: H. Daniels (3)
Sacks: C. Humphrey (1)
Tackles: Z. Kelly (5)
Navy Midshipmen
Passing: M. Maynor (27)
Rushing: J. Harris ll (80)
Receiving: M. Cooper (30)
Touchdowns: X. Arline (1)
Sacks: M. McMorris (1)
Tackles: M. West (5)
Air Force Falcons: Troy Calhoun (15th season)
Navy Midshipmen: Ken Niumatalolo (15th season)

Weather Forecast

77 degrees F sunny, 56% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds S.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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