Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 16, 2021
Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: AFA +4, BSU -4; Over/Under: 51 points
Bet365: Point Spread: AFA +4, BSU -4; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: AFA +4.5, BSU -4.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Air Force Falcons: 5-1 (2nd place, MW Mountain)
Boise State Broncos: 3-3 (3rd place, MW Mountain)
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Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos Preview and Analysis
Air Force Falcons: won at home on Oct. 9 against the Wyoming Cowboys 24-14.
Boise State Broncos: won on the road on Oct. 9 against the BYU Cougars 26-17.
Air Force Falcons Analysis
AFA is coming into this game with a 5-1 record overall and they are 2-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 3rd conference matchup of the year and they are in a good position right now with a 2-1 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 loss came against the Utah State Aggies while their 2 wins came against the New Mexico Lobos and Wyoming in their last game. They won that game 24-14 in a game that they were pretty much leading the entire time, shutting out Wyoming in the 2nd half. Haaziq Daniels played alright in that game as he completed 7/10 passes for 110 yards and 1 touchdown. Brad Roberts led the team in rushing with 140 yards and 1 touchdown but he was basically their entire running game in that one. Brandon Lewis led the receivers with 77 yards on 5 receptions while Micah Davis had 33 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 receptions. Demonte Meeks led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles, 1 assisted one and 1 sack. Vince Sanford and Jordan Jackson also had 1 sack each in that game but no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 196 points in their first 6 games averaging 32.7 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 97 points against them allowing 16.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 423.7 YPG while their defense is allowing 280.8 YPG.
Boise State Broncos Analysis
Boise State is coming into this game with a 3-3 record overall and they are 1-2 in their home game this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 3rd conference matchup on their schedule and they are currently 1-1 in their conference games this season. Their 1 loss came against the Nevada Wolf Pack while their win came against BYU in their last game. They went down in the 1st quarter of that game but they took the lead and never gave it back after winning that one 26-17. Hank Bachmeier played alright in that game as he completed 18/29 passes for 172 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cyrus Habibi-Likio led the team in rushing with 75 yards and 1 touchdown on 18 carries while Andrew Van Buren had 60 yards rushing and 1 touchdown on 18 carries as well. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 66 yards on 5 receptions in what was a pretty quiet day for the receiving corps. Caleb Biggers led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Scott Matlock had the only sack in that game for the defense while Kaonohi Kaniho came away with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 189 points in their first 6 games averaging 31.5 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 131 points against them allowing 21.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 374 YPG while their defense is allowing 414.3 YPG.
Air Force vs Boise State Prediction
Air Force is coming into this game as a 4 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. They got a big conference win against Wyoming in their last game to keep them positive at 2-1 in the conference and they have started to mix in some more passing plays with their strong run heavy offense. This is a letdown spot for Boise State as they are coming off of a big win against their rival BYU in a huge upset that cost BYU their undefeated season and any slim chance they had at going to the playoffs. The best bet to make in this game is on Air Force to cover the spread here.
Air Force Boise State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 16, 2021 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Air Force 24 Boise State 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Air Force Falcons: 169-172 ATS in all games. 53-59 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 105-118 ATS against conference opponents. 52-64 ATS in October games.
Boise State Broncos: 33-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 161-119 ATS in all games. 130-103 ATS as a favorite. 68-57 ATS as a home favorite. 73-61 ATS in home games. 100-75 ATS against conference opponents.
Air Force Falcons: K. Patterson (TE) Ques Sat - Knee injury. D. Cormier (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. D. Hughes (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Boise State Broncos: S. Igiehon (NT) Ques Sat - Personal. H. Gums Jr. (NT) Ques Sat - Knee injury. D. Obichere (DT) Ques Sat - Shoulder injury.
Players to Watch
Air Force Falcons: Brad Roberts is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in rushing yards this season. He is coming off of a game where he had almost 150 rushing yards and he will need to keep that up in this game. AFA loves to run the ball so look for him to get a lot of touches here as their leading running back.
Boise State Broncos: Khalil Shakir is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards this season. He was quiet in their last game and he will be looking to have a much better game here helping his team win against AFA. Look for him to get more involved in the offense is this game as he makes some big catches down the field.
“Sean is going to be Sean. He’s a leader, and that’s what he does. He brings that energy that we need for this team, and we’ve built around him. So we’re going to go out there and believe in him and have him just do what he does best.” - Isaiah Neyor on their starting quarterback Sean Chambers.
"We finally finished the second half. I think we've always been capable of doing it." - Hank Bachmeier on his team’s play in the 2nd half in their upset win over BYU.
Air Force Falcons
WR David Cormier
WR Micah Davis
TE King, Dalton
QB Daniels, Haaziq
RB Hughes, DeAndre
FB Roberts, Brad
Boise State Broncos
WR Evans, Octavius
WR Cobbs, Stefan
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Smith, Riley
QB Bachmeier, Hank
RB Holani, George
Air Force Falcons
Passing: H. Daniels (494)
Rushing: B. Roberts (680)
Receiving: M. Davis (221)
Touchdowns: H. Daniels (8)
Sacks: V. Sanford (6.5)
Tackles: V. Sanford (24)
Boise State Broncos
Passing: H. Bachmeier (1692)
Rushing: C. Habibi-Likio (181)
Receiving: K. Shakir (584)
Touchdowns: A. Van Buren (5)
Sacks: I. Bagnah (5)
Tackles: J. Skinner (43)
Air Force Falcons: Troy Calhoun (15th season)
Boise State Broncos: Andy Avalos (1st season)
70 degrees F sunny, 40% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 12 mph wind speeds SE.