by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Dec 19, 2021
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Venue: First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Arkansas State -4
BetMGM: Arkansas State -4.5
Caesars: Arkansas State -4
Season record
Air Force: 7-2
Arkansas State: 7-3
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Air Force - Arkansas State preview and analysis
Recent form
Air Force: lost 66-48 at Montana on Dec. 8
Arkansas State: lost 75-62 at Texas Tech on Tuesday
The Air Force Falcons will return after an 11-day break and continue their three-game road trip when they face the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Sunday.
Air Force is off to a 7-2 start but had their seven-game winning streak end on Dec. 8 in an 18-point loss at Montana. Despite that, this is the best start since 2012 for the Falcons, who rank 22nd in the nation in scoring defense and has an offense shooting close to 50 percent on the year.
Leading the way for the Falcons is guard A.J. Walker, who is also playing 36.1 minutes a night; not as crazy as freshman Ethan Taylor playing 38.4 minutes and having a tremendous all-around season.
But Walker has been a scoring dynamo and doing so in an efficient way at 56.9 percent from the floor and 46.9 percent from 3-point range. Walker has reached double digits in all but one game; a one-point winner against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Walker had 18 of Air Force's 48 points against the Grizzlies while the Falcons shot 34.8 percent from the floor.
They'll be taking on an Arkansas State team that had its four-game winning streak end against the newly-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders on Tuesday. Markise Davis led the way with 17 points on 7 of 11 shooting, while Marquis Eaton had 15 points and five assists on 6 of 11 shooting.
Arkansas State's three losses have been very distinctive; 39 to Illinois, 24 to Morehead State, and 13 to Texas Tech. Make it make sense, college basketball. Make it make sense.
Prediction
My biggest concern with Air Force is having this kind of good play travel to the road. Arkansas State has proven to be a tough place to play and I like their depth over what Air Force can bring to the table. Give me the Red Wolves. Arkansas State by 14
Betting trends
Air Force is 8-13 ATS in its last 21 as a road dog.
Air Force is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 following a loss by 15 or more.
Arkansas State is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 home games.
Arkansas State is 8-2 ATS in its lat 10 after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games.
Projected starting lineup
Air Force:
PG: A.J. Walker
SG: Joseph Octave
SF: Jake Heidbreder
PF: Ethan Taylor
C: Lucas Moerman
SF: Jake Heidbreder
PF: Ethan Taylor
C: Lucas Moerman
Arkansas State:
PG: Caleb Fields
SG: Marquis Eaton
SF: Desi Sills
PF: Norchad Omier
C: Markise Davis
SF: Desi Sills
PF: Norchad Omier
C: Markise Davis
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
