by Jazz Ray
Wednesday, Jan 07, 2026A look at the AFC playoffs, Wild Card weekend:
HOTTEST TEAM – Left for dead on the side of the road after starting the season with back-to-back-to-back losses to the Chargers, Bucs, and Jaguars, the Texans defied overwhelming (1 in 50) odds, reeled off nine straight victories, and enter the playoffs on the mother of all heaters.
COLDEST TEAM – Chargers start the tournament after falling a spot in the seedings by dropping their last two, but there’s no crime in losing to red-hot Houston and to No. 1 seed Denver. Protecting the health of QB1 Justin Herbert was more important to LA than sneaking into the 6 seed.
BEST QUARTERBACK – Josh Allen, Bills. In the most important half of the Bills’ season (to that point), Allen outplayed New England’s Drake Maye. The Bills won that game, in Foxboro, kept their division hopes alive, and in the end, cost New England the top seed.
BEST COACH – Mike Vrabel, Patriots. The previous two Pats coaches (Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo) won a combined total of eight games. Vrabel, basically building an offense AND defense almost from scratch, got the Pats to 14-3. He has experience both as a coach and a player.
BIGGEST SPREAD – Houston is favored by 3.5/4 points over a Pittsburgh team that is still in the mix only because of a missed field goal on the last play of the final game. Can Aaron Rodgers get it done on a pair of old legs?
LARGEST O/U – 51.5 is a large number for a playoff game, but all the ingredients are in place for a shootout in Jacksonville. Buffalo is good for 30 a game, and the Jags AVERAGED almost 33 in winning their last eight in a row. Seat belt time.
The games:
(7) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan. 11 – 8pm
Line – Patriots -3.5
New England has been hearing “Yeah but strength of schedule” ever since it shook off a 1-2 start and starting beating everyone who stood in their way. But if you have a QB who will finish no worse than second in the MVP voting and a solid defense with particular strength in the secondary, what’s not to like? Justin Herbert is coming off a load management personal bye week and can make all the plays, but his completion percentage was a middling 66 percent this season. How will he perform in what will probably be a cold January night in Foxboro?
(6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, Jan. 11 – 1pm
Line – Bills -1.5
So here’s the question the Bills need to answer: How fast can they patch up their leaky defense against the run? It’s been an unexpected problem most of this season, and Josh Allen’s playmaking ability has been able to cover things up so far. The Jags might be a different animal, though, as Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten are a two-headed beast. And that Trevor Lawrence guy ain’t so bad, either. This one looks like it could be the pick of the litter in the AFC end of things.
(5) Houston Texans at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, Jan. 12 – 8:15pm
Line – Texans -4
What to make of the Texans, who enter the playoffs with the NFL’s top-ranked defense? Does Aaron Rodgers have enough left in his legs and arm to deal with Houston, which earned its spot in the playoffs by controlling the line of scrimmage and not making too many mistakes with C.J. Stroud calling signals? Not too many people are looking for a high-scoring game here, and that will make covering the 4 even more difficult.
HOTTEST TEAM – Left for dead on the side of the road after starting the season with back-to-back-to-back losses to the Chargers, Bucs, and Jaguars, the Texans defied overwhelming (1 in 50) odds, reeled off nine straight victories, and enter the playoffs on the mother of all heaters.
COLDEST TEAM – Chargers start the tournament after falling a spot in the seedings by dropping their last two, but there’s no crime in losing to red-hot Houston and to No. 1 seed Denver. Protecting the health of QB1 Justin Herbert was more important to LA than sneaking into the 6 seed.
BEST QUARTERBACK – Josh Allen, Bills. In the most important half of the Bills’ season (to that point), Allen outplayed New England’s Drake Maye. The Bills won that game, in Foxboro, kept their division hopes alive, and in the end, cost New England the top seed.
BEST COACH – Mike Vrabel, Patriots. The previous two Pats coaches (Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo) won a combined total of eight games. Vrabel, basically building an offense AND defense almost from scratch, got the Pats to 14-3. He has experience both as a coach and a player.
BIGGEST SPREAD – Houston is favored by 3.5/4 points over a Pittsburgh team that is still in the mix only because of a missed field goal on the last play of the final game. Can Aaron Rodgers get it done on a pair of old legs?
LARGEST O/U – 51.5 is a large number for a playoff game, but all the ingredients are in place for a shootout in Jacksonville. Buffalo is good for 30 a game, and the Jags AVERAGED almost 33 in winning their last eight in a row. Seat belt time.
The games:
(7) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan. 11 – 8pm
Line – Patriots -3.5
New England has been hearing “Yeah but strength of schedule” ever since it shook off a 1-2 start and starting beating everyone who stood in their way. But if you have a QB who will finish no worse than second in the MVP voting and a solid defense with particular strength in the secondary, what’s not to like? Justin Herbert is coming off a load management personal bye week and can make all the plays, but his completion percentage was a middling 66 percent this season. How will he perform in what will probably be a cold January night in Foxboro?
(6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, Jan. 11 – 1pm
Line – Bills -1.5
So here’s the question the Bills need to answer: How fast can they patch up their leaky defense against the run? It’s been an unexpected problem most of this season, and Josh Allen’s playmaking ability has been able to cover things up so far. The Jags might be a different animal, though, as Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten are a two-headed beast. And that Trevor Lawrence guy ain’t so bad, either. This one looks like it could be the pick of the litter in the AFC end of things.
(5) Houston Texans at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, Jan. 12 – 8:15pm
Line – Texans -4
What to make of the Texans, who enter the playoffs with the NFL’s top-ranked defense? Does Aaron Rodgers have enough left in his legs and arm to deal with Houston, which earned its spot in the playoffs by controlling the line of scrimmage and not making too many mistakes with C.J. Stroud calling signals? Not too many people are looking for a high-scoring game here, and that will make covering the 4 even more difficult.
