Aaron Rodgers: NFL MVP Futures Wager

by ASA, Inc.

There is no question the Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur relationship has taken a step in the right direction this season. The Packers have scored the most points in the NFL so far over the first four games and Rodgers seems to be back to his old self. Even without Davante Adams for 7 quarters this season Rodgers has had no trouble finding open targets. LaFleur’s offensive scheme has been able to get players like Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan open this season, when it struggled to do so at times last year. Rock-solid offensive line play has also provided time for Rodgers to stretch the field and showcase his usual arm strength and pinpoint accuracy.  

Through 4 games, Rodgers is on pace for 4,856 yards and 52 Touchdowns with an astounding 0 interceptions.

Current BetOnline Odds for MVP:

Russell Wilson +125

Aaron Rodgers +375

Patrick Mahomes +650

Josh Allen +900

Lamar Jackson +1200


If Rodgers puts up numbers like that it is hard to see him not walking away with the MVP. That is of course unless Russell Wilson keeps his current pace that would put him at 5,140 yards and 64 with 8 interceptions. Those numbers do seem unfathomable and would smash the current record of 55 touchdowns in a single season. Unfortunately, 64 touchdowns is not achievable no matter how you spin it.

Moving forward, Russell Wilson’s current numbers will be very hard to sustain. He has an insane touchdown rate of 11.7% this season. Never in his 8 year career has he ever had a TD rate over 8.2%. During that year in 2018 Russ threw for a career high 35 touchdowns. Those 64 touchdowns he is in on pace for will begin to drop each week to a more realistic number.

Aaron Rodgers has a TD rate of 9.4%. This number is much easier to preserve as it is very similar to his 2011 MVP season. During that season he had a TD rate of 9.0%. Rodgers threw 45 touchdowns and finished with 6 interceptions as the Packers went 14-1 with him under center. Expect the MVP odds to continue to slide more toward Rodgers in the coming weeks.

With a healthy Davante Adams back after the week 4 bye, Aaron Rodgers looks poised to make another run at the MVP and carry the Packers to a high seed in the NFC. A repeat of last season’s Divisional Round matchup between Rodgers and Russ would be an absolute treat in early 2021. 

With the Packers sitting at 4-0 and set to be favored in all but one game moving forward, Rodgers will be a prime candidate for the MVP award barring injury.  Even though we’ve lost some value, getting nearly 4/1 odds at BetOnline is worth a look.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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