by Power Sports
Tuesday, Oct 19, 2021With the four major European soccer leagues returning from an International break last weekend, I thought it would be a good time to check in on what’s been going on and what we might expect moving forward.
New to betting European soccer? Don’t be scared. I’ve got you covered in the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A.
English Premier League: Remember when somebody wrote that Brighton & Hove Albion would be the most improved side in all of Europe this season? That was pretty smart. But I’d still expect Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City & Manchester United to occupy the top four spots in the table at season’s end. Note that while Chelsea is currently in first place, they only have the eighth highest expected point total (xPts). So there could be some regression there. West Ham & Everton, who just played last weekend, should battle it out for fifth and the Europa League spot. Tottenham is the most overrated team right now. They are in the bottom half of the table in terms of xPts and goal differential. I’d fade them when the opportunity presents itself. Newly promoted Brentford has made a real solid showing and actually has the third highest number of xPts! Can they keep that up though? As far as the relegation battle goes, Norwich City looks like a lock. Newcastle United would be a solid bet to finish in the bottom three as would Watford.
Spanish La Liga: This league is far more wide open than in years’ past. Right now, Real Sociedad is your surprise leader, but I’d be shocked if that continues. Going by goal differential, Real Madrid has been the class of La Liga as they’ve outscored opponents by 12 this season. Sevilla might also have a case to finish at the top of the table as they have a +8 goal differential and the highest number of xPts. What makes that impressive is they’ve played one fewer match than most other sides. Should we really discount Barcelona? Probably not. I also haven’t even mentioned the reigning champs Atletico Madrid. Sides like Real Betis and Osasuna look like they could contend for the Europa League. With most of the newly promoted sides doing better than expected in La Liga, the relegation battle will be interesting. Levante and Getafe are both still winless. Alaves also stinks. But Levante has been unlucky and I think they’ll move out of the drop zone. Granada, Cadiz and Elche finished with the three lowest xPts last season and are by no means considered safe in 2021/22. Granada in particular has been bad. They have the lowest number of xPts in any of the big four leagues this season.
German Bundesliga: Once again, this league belongs to Bayern Munich. They just shredded Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 over the weekend. Bet on Die Roten running away with their 10th straight Bundesliga title. Dortmund (5-0 at home) is the other lock to finish in the Champions League places (top four), provided Erling Haaland remains healthy. Right now, Haaland is level with Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski with a league-high nine goals, despite playing in two fewer matches. Freiburg is the only undefeated side in the German Top Flight, but has drawn in four of their eight matches and I don’t expect them to remain in the top four. Leverkusen and Wolfsburg are two other sides that have overperformed xPts so far. As for who could move up, keep an eye on Gladbach, Union Berlin and especially RB Leipzig. The relegation battle will likely include the two newly promoted sides - Bochum and Greuther Furth - as well as Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld. Bielefeld has the second lowest point xPts in any league I’ll be talking about today, ahead of only La Liga’s Granada.
Italian Serie A: There is a clear dividing line here between the top seven and everyone else. The big story is Napoli, who has won all eight of its matches so far. They are the only side in any of the big four leagues without a loss or a draw. AC Milan and Inter have also been excellent and have the look of top four sides. That would leave Atalanta, Juventus, Roma and Lazio to battle it out for the other Champions League spot. Despite getting off to such a terrible start, Juve has already managed to climb up to 7th in the table. An interesting thing with Roma is that they have won all four home fixtures but have lost three of four away. Atalanta has scored less than usual. There is no more overrated side in Serie A than Fiorentina. Empoli is another team that you should see start falling down the table. Torino, who was due to improve from a tough 2020/21 season, may be the most underrated. Cagliari, currently 19th, should escape the drop zone. They have an xPts total that’s more indicative of a mid-table side. I’d say that Salernitana is the most likely team to be relegated. Spezia is the second most likely.
