2026 Travers Stakes Preview

The 157th edition of the Travers Stakes (Grade 1) -- also known as the mid-summer Derby -- will take place this Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.  To say this is a weak group of three-year-olds is stating the obvious -- and it seems like we're saying that every year now.  But this crop especially, even when comparing them to last year's 3YOs, seems particularly lacking as there are no Sovereigntys in here.  But having said that, you don't need a ton of talent to have a compelling and competitive horse race, and it seems like we certainly will have that at 6:35 PM ET on Saturday (race 13 of 14 races) when 10 horses go to the post.  Here is a preview of the field (by post position with morning line odds):

   

1) Emerging Market 15-1: This Chad Brown trained son of Candy Ride is one of two that the meet's leading conditioner has in the race (with #7 Sea Strike being the other).  Brown has never won the Travers (in fact never even finished second in this race).  Emerging Market has had three chances to show he belongs among the top of the 3YO crop since winning the Louisiana Derby in his second start.  Unfortunately, he hasn't stood out against many of the same runners that he will be facing today and in fact in his last race, he couldn't even win an Allowance tune-up here at Saratoga on July 25th (finished 2nd).  He's hard to back coming off of that one and the rail post doesn't help his chances.  Regular rider (and leading jockey) Flavien Prat opted for Sea Strike over this one so Ricardo Santana will ride.

   

2) Leading Change 12-1:  This son of Gun Runner has raced only twice and won both times, most recently prevailing by a neck as the 1-2 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Indiana Derby (G3) on July 11. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Travers with Essential Quality and jockey Manny Franco won the COVID-year Travers with Tiz the Law (2020).  Franco replaces regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. who is out with a foot injury.  It's a big step up for this lightly raced colt but if anyone knows how to win in these situations it's Cox.

   

3) Napoleon Solo 8-1: The Preakness winner chose the Haskell Stakes path this summer and he performed well in that race at Monmouth on July 18, finishing a hard-fought 2nd to Baby Vino.  The son of Liam's Map is trained by Chad Summers who is having a tough Saratoga meet so far, but all that could be erased with a win by Napoleon Solo here.  He's a well-traveled colt, having already raced at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Monmouth, and here at Saratoga where he won his very first race as a maiden.  A jockey change from Paco Lopez to three-time Travers winner John Velazquez certainly doesn't hurt.

   

4) The Puma 8-1:  Gustavo Delgado won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage and was hoping for a repeat just three years later with this son of Essential Quality.  But The Puma had to be scratched right before the big race due to a skin infection and he finally made his comeback at the Haskell on July 18, finishing 4th with a solid speed rating.  If the Puma can improve on that and return to the form he had in winning the Tampa Bay Derby and finishing a close 2nd in the Florida Derby, he can be a major factor today.   Regular rider Javier Castellano returns for the mount and Castellano is having a fantastic Saratoga meet so far.

   

5) Renegade 3-1:  This Todd Pletcher-trained son of leading sire Into Mischief is the second choice today after Derby and Belmont winner Golden Tempo.  Pletcher has teamed with owner Mike Repole to win this race twice before -- in 2011 with Stay Thirsty and more recently in 2024 with Fierceness.  Renegade won the local tune-up, the August 1 Jim Dandy Stakes, impressively and he equaled his best speed rating in doing so.  If the extended time off for Golden Tempo results in his not being at his best today, then Renegade is the obvious choice.  Tyler Gaffalione replaces regular rider Irad Ortiz, who, if healthy, likely would have chosen Renegade over #2, Leading Change.

   

6) Ocelli 20-1:  Everyone's favorite maiden is back to try again in a Grade 1 race.  This son of Connect has now tried 10 times to get a victory with no success.  One has to wonder why the owners and trainer D. Whitworth Beckman haven't simply put him in a maiden race at Saratoga where his chances of winning would be very high.  He could then go on with his stakes schedule if they wanted, but that is not the path they are choosing for some reason.  What's particularly head-scratching about their decision to try the deep waters of the Travers is that Ocelli is coming off of arguably his worst race as he finished a well-beaten 7th in the Haskell Stakes.  Edgard Zayas replaces Gaffalione in the saddle today.

   

7) Sea Strike 5-1:  The "other" Chad Brown horse in the race is actually much more of a buzz horse than Emerging Market, who has already lost to many of the runners in here.  This son of Midshipman was ultra-impressive in winning the Curlin Stakes here at Saratoga on August 2, trouncing the well-regarded Derby runner, Chief Wallabee.  But this is a big step up and historically, winners of the Curlin who then try the Travers have not fared well.  A big positive for him however is the fact that Flavien Prat chose him over the aforementioned Emerging Market.  But you would need considerably higher than 5-1 on Sea Strike in order for it to be fair odds for the victory today.

   

8) Baby Vino 10-1:  Here is perhaps the most intriguing of the 10 runners in the field.  This son of Vino Rosso was sent off at odds of 28-1 in the Haskell but a rail-skimming ride by unheralded local NJ jockey Jorge Vargas and a valiant stretch duel with Napoleon Solo resulted in a huge upset win for Baby Vino and trainer Lindsay Shultz.  Can they do it again on an even bigger stage?  Not only won't you get 28-1 to find out, but you likely also won't get 10-1 as Baby Vino will probably be bet down below his morning line odds.  Apparently Schultz and the owners felt compelled to go with a jockey switch even though Vargas produced that Haskell win, so Paco Lopez gets the mount.

   

9) Golden Tempo 5-2:  The obvious favorite after winning both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont in exciting last-to-first finishes, Golden Tempo finally returns to action for trainer Cherie DeVaux and owners Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable.  An illness later in June caused this son of Curlin to miss training and skip the Jim Dandy and the big question today will be whether he can return to form without having any prep race.  He's beaten most of the others in here before but 3YO colts mature quite a bit over the summer so it will be interesting to see if any of the others -- including the new shooters -- will be able to keep Golden Tempo out of the winners circle.  5-2 or 2-1 odds likely won't be enough to persuade folks to bet their mortgage on him.  Leading rider Jose Ortiz returns for the mount.

   

10) Silent Tactic 10-1:  Mark Casse would love to add the Travers Stakes to his ever-growing Hall-of-Fame resume.  The 65-year-old conditioner will send out this son of Tacitus in what might be his best chance ever to win this prestigious race.  Silent Tactic makes his second start off a four-month layoff when he finished third in the Jim Dandy here at Saratoga.  A bruised foot took Silent Tactic off the Triple Crown trail, but he's back and looking to improve off of that solid Jim Dandy effort.  Like Golden Tempo, Silent Tactic is a come-from-behind type who will need a solid pace up front, but the #10 post shouldn't bother him at all.  Two-time Travers winner Luis Sáez will have the mount.

   

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie