by Vegas Writer
Wednesday, Sep 09, 2026The NFL MVP market looks wide open entering the 2026 season, but history gives bettors a clear starting point: focus almost exclusively on quarterbacks. A quarterback has captured the award in 18 of the past 20 seasons and every year since Adrian Peterson won it in 2012. Unless a running back produces a historic campaign, the winner will likely direct one of the league’s highest-scoring teams to a top playoff seed.
Josh Allen opens as the favorite after finishing third in last season’s voting, while two-time winner Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Drake Maye comprise the next group. Maye nearly won the 2025 award, losing to Matthew Stafford by only five voting points after throwing for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns. Stafford returns to defend his trophy, although consecutive MVP awards are extremely difficult to secure.
The challenge is identifying the quarterback whose statistics, team success and season-long narrative will intersect. Elite numbers alone are insufficient. The eventual winner probably needs at least 12 victories, a division championship and a realistic opportunity to secure his conference’s No. 1 seed. Durability matters just as much because missing even two or three games can effectively eliminate a player.
Price also matters. Allen possesses the shortest odds, but Buffalo must navigate an improved AFC East. Burrow has MVP-level talent, but his injury history adds considerable risk. Patrick Mahomes is returning from major knee surgery, and Stafford must share attention with a loaded Rams roster.
That combination creates opportunities farther down the board. My portfolio includes one quarterback capable of making a dramatic leap at a substantial price, another whose second-year development could propel him into the league’s statistical elite, and a proven young star who came extraordinarily close last season.
Odds referenced below were available at DraftKings entering Week 1, but should be compared across sportsbooks.
LONGSHOT: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (+2200)
Lawrence is the type of MVP longshot worth considering because his path does not require an unrealistic transformation. He needs to build upon Jacksonville’s offensive progress, lead the Jaguars to the AFC South championship and approach 4,500 passing yards with approximately 35 touchdowns.
The former No. 1 overall pick has always possessed elite physical tools, but consistency and protection have prevented his production from matching his reputation. Jacksonville now offers him greater offensive stability and enough explosive talent to manufacture the statistical breakout voters have anticipated.
The AFC South also presents an attainable route to 11 or 12 victories. Houston remains formidable, but Jacksonville does not have to survive a division as deep as the AFC North. If Lawrence wins the South and the Jaguars challenge for a top-two AFC seed, his candidacy will receive immediate credibility.
This wager carries obvious volatility. Lawrence must significantly increase his touchdown production while avoiding the midseason inconsistency that has followed him throughout his career. Nevertheless, he possesses the talent, starting security and team ceiling required of a legitimate longshot.
SLEEPER: Caleb Williams, Bears (+1200)
Williams may already be too prominent to qualify as a traditional longshot, but he remains my favorite sleeper among quarterbacks outside the initial group of AFC favorites.
His first season with Ben Johnson produced a substantial breakthrough: 3,942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. More importantly, Williams led Chicago to an 11-6 record, an NFC North championship and its first playoff victory since the 2010 season. His seven game-winning drives tied Bo Nix for the NFL lead.
That creates an obvious Year 2 progression. Williams no longer has to learn Johnson’s terminology or adjust to an entirely new offense. Chicago can expand the system, increase its tempo and place more responsibility on a quarterback who already demonstrated improved decision-making.
The concern is potential team regression. The Bears repeatedly escaped close games last season, and the NFC North remains extremely demanding. Williams probably needs Chicago to win the division again while improving his production to roughly 4,300 yards and 35 total touchdowns.
However, that is a realistic ceiling. His arm talent, improvisational ability and late-game reputation give him the spectacular plays and narrative moments MVP voters remember.
PREDICTION: Drake Maye, Patriots (+1000)
Maye is my prediction to win the 2026 NFL MVP.
He nearly captured the award last season, receiving 23 first-place votes compared with Stafford’s 24 and finishing only five total voting points behind him. Maye completed an NFL-leading 72% of his passes while generating 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He also added 450 rushing yards and four scores.
Those are already MVP-caliber numbers. The addition of A.J. Brown gives Maye a true boundary playmaker capable of converting contested throws into explosive completions. Brown should also command safety attention, creating better opportunities for New England’s tight ends and secondary receivers.
Maye’s mobility strengthens his candidacy. He does not need designed rushing volume comparable to Allen or Jackson, but another 400-plus yards on the ground could push him beyond 5,000 total yards. If his passing touchdowns rise into the upper 30s, the statistical résumé will be difficult to dismiss.
New England’s schedule will be more demanding, but that could actually improve Maye’s narrative. Critics questioned the Patriots’ strength of schedule last season. Producing similar numbers against better competition while leading New England to another AFC East title would eliminate that argument.
Allen and Jackson are deserving favorites, but Maye offers the better intersection of price, upward trajectory and voter momentum. He was one first-place vote away last season—and his supporting cast has improved.
Josh Allen opens as the favorite after finishing third in last season’s voting, while two-time winner Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Drake Maye comprise the next group. Maye nearly won the 2025 award, losing to Matthew Stafford by only five voting points after throwing for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns. Stafford returns to defend his trophy, although consecutive MVP awards are extremely difficult to secure.
The challenge is identifying the quarterback whose statistics, team success and season-long narrative will intersect. Elite numbers alone are insufficient. The eventual winner probably needs at least 12 victories, a division championship and a realistic opportunity to secure his conference’s No. 1 seed. Durability matters just as much because missing even two or three games can effectively eliminate a player.
Price also matters. Allen possesses the shortest odds, but Buffalo must navigate an improved AFC East. Burrow has MVP-level talent, but his injury history adds considerable risk. Patrick Mahomes is returning from major knee surgery, and Stafford must share attention with a loaded Rams roster.
That combination creates opportunities farther down the board. My portfolio includes one quarterback capable of making a dramatic leap at a substantial price, another whose second-year development could propel him into the league’s statistical elite, and a proven young star who came extraordinarily close last season.
Odds referenced below were available at DraftKings entering Week 1, but should be compared across sportsbooks.
LONGSHOT: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (+2200)
Lawrence is the type of MVP longshot worth considering because his path does not require an unrealistic transformation. He needs to build upon Jacksonville’s offensive progress, lead the Jaguars to the AFC South championship and approach 4,500 passing yards with approximately 35 touchdowns.
The former No. 1 overall pick has always possessed elite physical tools, but consistency and protection have prevented his production from matching his reputation. Jacksonville now offers him greater offensive stability and enough explosive talent to manufacture the statistical breakout voters have anticipated.
The AFC South also presents an attainable route to 11 or 12 victories. Houston remains formidable, but Jacksonville does not have to survive a division as deep as the AFC North. If Lawrence wins the South and the Jaguars challenge for a top-two AFC seed, his candidacy will receive immediate credibility.
This wager carries obvious volatility. Lawrence must significantly increase his touchdown production while avoiding the midseason inconsistency that has followed him throughout his career. Nevertheless, he possesses the talent, starting security and team ceiling required of a legitimate longshot.
SLEEPER: Caleb Williams, Bears (+1200)
Williams may already be too prominent to qualify as a traditional longshot, but he remains my favorite sleeper among quarterbacks outside the initial group of AFC favorites.
His first season with Ben Johnson produced a substantial breakthrough: 3,942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. More importantly, Williams led Chicago to an 11-6 record, an NFC North championship and its first playoff victory since the 2010 season. His seven game-winning drives tied Bo Nix for the NFL lead.
That creates an obvious Year 2 progression. Williams no longer has to learn Johnson’s terminology or adjust to an entirely new offense. Chicago can expand the system, increase its tempo and place more responsibility on a quarterback who already demonstrated improved decision-making.
The concern is potential team regression. The Bears repeatedly escaped close games last season, and the NFC North remains extremely demanding. Williams probably needs Chicago to win the division again while improving his production to roughly 4,300 yards and 35 total touchdowns.
However, that is a realistic ceiling. His arm talent, improvisational ability and late-game reputation give him the spectacular plays and narrative moments MVP voters remember.
PREDICTION: Drake Maye, Patriots (+1000)
Maye is my prediction to win the 2026 NFL MVP.
He nearly captured the award last season, receiving 23 first-place votes compared with Stafford’s 24 and finishing only five total voting points behind him. Maye completed an NFL-leading 72% of his passes while generating 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He also added 450 rushing yards and four scores.
Those are already MVP-caliber numbers. The addition of A.J. Brown gives Maye a true boundary playmaker capable of converting contested throws into explosive completions. Brown should also command safety attention, creating better opportunities for New England’s tight ends and secondary receivers.
Maye’s mobility strengthens his candidacy. He does not need designed rushing volume comparable to Allen or Jackson, but another 400-plus yards on the ground could push him beyond 5,000 total yards. If his passing touchdowns rise into the upper 30s, the statistical résumé will be difficult to dismiss.
New England’s schedule will be more demanding, but that could actually improve Maye’s narrative. Critics questioned the Patriots’ strength of schedule last season. Producing similar numbers against better competition while leading New England to another AFC East title would eliminate that argument.
Allen and Jackson are deserving favorites, but Maye offers the better intersection of price, upward trajectory and voter momentum. He was one first-place vote away last season—and his supporting cast has improved.
