2026 NCAA Tournament: Big Ten Bubble Teams

Not since 2000 has a Big Ten team won the national title in college basketball. The conference has several title threats this season that will command attention in March. This week we’ll look at the middle of the conference and consider the current bubble teams in the Big Ten as the regular season enters the final two weeks. 

Six teams in the Big Ten should comfortably be in the NCAA Tournament Field: Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Here are five teams that need to pick up a few more quality wins to feel secure with their fate on Selection Sunday: 

UCLA: 18-9 overall, 10-6 Big Ten

Best Wins: (H) Purdue, (H) Illinois

Remaining Games: (H) USC, (A) Minnesota, (H) Nebraska, (A) USC

UCLA’s epic comeback overtime win over Illinois last weekend is likely enough to get the Bruins in the NCAA Tournament, shaking off back-to-back blowout losses on the road vs. Michigan and Michigan State. Now with two prominent wins and at a minimum a .500 Big Ten record, this is a team that should make the field, unless UCLA closes the season losing five straight games. The remaining schedule has more risk to damage the profile with a loss than boost the team’s credentials with a quality win.

UCLA has only one home loss this season heading into this week but there are only three wins away from home all season and a December win at Washington is the only top 100 result away from home. While UCLA is ahead of Iowa in the standings, the Bruins have worse metrics than the Hawkeyes and lost the lone head-to-head meeting in Iowa City by double-digits. 

Getting to 12-8 should assure the Bruins of a spot in the Big Dance but the profile is built on success at home and without last week’s one-point overtime win over Illinois it might be a very close call for the Bruins. 

Iowa: 19-8 overall, 9-7 Big Ten

Best Wins: (H) UCLA, (A) Indiana, (H) Nebraska

Remaining Games: (H) Ohio State, (A) Penn State, (H) Michigan, (A) Nebraska 

Iowa has strong metrics and is a top 30 KenPom team but the Hawkeyes didn’t have a signature win in Ben McCollum’s first season until last week’s home win over Nebraska in a tight low-scoring game. Iowa lost at Wisconsin the follow-up game and probably needs to go 2-2 in the final four to feel good about its NCAA Tournament chances, as that would put the Hawkeyes at 11-9 in the Big Ten play. 

That is not a simple task however, as the home games are difficult, facing Ohio State and Michigan. The road finale is at Nebraska while the upcoming weekend features a road game at Penn State that the Hawkeyes cannot afford to give away. Wednesday’s game with Ohio State is a big one in the bubble conversation in the Big Ten. 

Iowa faced an incredibly weak non-conference schedule and lost in the only top 50 test as unless the Hawkeyes can upset Michigan or Nebraska in the final week, the Big Ten Tournament may feature meaningful games for Iowa depending on how much the bubble is squeezed around the country. 

Indiana: 17-10 overall, 8-8 Big Ten

Best Wins: (H) Purdue, (A) UCLA, (H) Wisconsin

Remaining Schedule: (H) Northwestern, (H) Michigan State, (H) Minnesota, (A) Ohio State

Overtime wins over UCLA and Wisconsin have kept the Hoosiers in the running for a NCAA Tournament spot but with a double-digit figure in the loss column and a .500 Big Ten record with four games to go, the Hoosiers are likely destined for tense wait on Selection Sunday.

Indiana has three of the final four regular season games at home and the Big Ten tournament is in Indianapolis as things could still finish favorably for the Hoosiers. A head-to-head game with another bubble team Ohio State on the road in the season finale is a potentially dangerous outcome for Indiana, however. That game will carry far more weight if the Hoosiers are upset by either Northwestern or Minnesota, unless they are able to upset Michigan State on the late season home stand to offset a bad loss. 

Non-conference wins over Marquette and Kansas State wound up not helping the Hoosiers as Indiana did take on a few major conference non-conference tests. The signature win over Purdue in January is keeping Indiana in the postseason conversation but recent blowout losses to Illinois and also in the rematch with Purdue have left concerns about if this team will be worthy of a spot in March. 

Ohio State: 17-10 Overall, 9-7 Big Ten

Best Wins: (H) UCLA, (H) Wisconsin

Remaining Games: (A) Iowa, (H) Purdue, (A) Penn State, (H) Indiana

A head-to-head win over fellow bubble team UCLA was about all that was holding up Ohio State’s resume until last week’s emphatic home win over Wisconsin. Most losses for the Buckeyes outside of a home loss to Michigan by 20 have been competitive games and Ohio State has often looked the part of a team that can compete against top competition. The loss count is already at 10 and there are tough games remaining as the Buckeyes are likely to have a Selection Sunday sweat. 

None of the remaining four games on the regular season schedule can be confidently penciled in as a win as finishing above .500 in league play is not a given. The Buckeyes do have four Big Ten road wins but those results came against the bottom of the conference while a double-overtime non-conference win over West Virginia in a neutral setting does at least provide some value to an otherwise inconsequential non-conference resume. 

Ohio State has the opportunity in front of them with home games remaining with quality teams plus a bubble battle with Iowa this week but given some of the head-to-head pairings in the late season Big Ten schedule, there won’t be room for everyone on this list to get in. 

USC: 18-9 Overall, 7-9 Big Ten

Best Wins: (A) Wisconsin, (H) Indiana

Remaining Schedule: (A) USC, (H) Nebraska, (A) Washington, (H) UCLA

USC is on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but the Trojans have quality win opportunities remaining and winning three of the final four to reach 10-10 in Big Ten play would warrant significant notice. While USC didn’t pick up a top 50 win, it was a higher caliber non-conference schedule than many Big Ten teams faced. The Trojans had solid wins over Illinois State, Boise State, Seton Hall, and Arizona State in non-home games for a more well-rounded resume than some of the other Big Ten bubble teams that have little to show away from home.  

USC also didn’t have NBA prospect Alijah Arenas until late January while Chad Baker-Mazara missed two of the worst losses for the team as a little late season momentum could give the committee a glimpse of what this team would have the potential to perform like at full strength in the NCAA Tournament. 

Beating Nebraska at home next weekend and at least landing a split in the two remaining games with rival UCLA will keep USC in the picture for NCAA Tournament consideration.