by Sean Murphy
Monday, Apr 20, 2026We’re getting to that point in the MLB season where we're not just dealing with noise anymore, but things aren't fully settled either. That’s usually where the best betting opportunities are—when the market is adjusting, but hasn’t quite gotten there yet. A few things have stood out over the last couple of weeks:
Bullpens are deciding a lot of games
This is the biggest thing right now and it’s showing up every night.
You’ll see a starter do his job, his team’s up a run or two, and then it completely unravels in the 6th or 7th. It’s not just closers blowing saves either—it’s the middle innings where games are getting flipped. That obviously makes full game sides a little tougher to handicap.
Looking for live betting spots can be key. If a team with a shaky pen is sitting on a lead, I’m way more interested in fading that than I normally would be this time of year. With bullpen stats and pitcher availability widely available, bullpen ineffectiveness can often work to our advantage by doing some homework.
Some teams are still being priced on reputation
The New York Mets are the obvious one, but they’re not alone.
There are teams that haven’t hit, haven’t gotten consistent pitching, and are still laying prices because of what they were expected to be coming into the season. That adjustment always takes longer than it should.
If a team looks off—bad approaches at the plate, bullpen can’t hold anything together—I’m not worried about stepping in front of them, even if the line appears steep at first glance.
Not all teams can be trusted
The Atlanta Braves are a good example of the other side of it. They’re not just winning—they’re not beating themselves. That’s a big deal right now when so many games are being decided late.
A lot of teams look fine until something goes wrong. The better teams are the ones that don’t let it spiral. I don’t mind laying a price in those spots, especially against teams that have already shown they can’t close games out (I'm looking at you again Mets).
Totals have adjusted (maybe a little too much)
We've seen enough high-scoring games lately that totals are starting to creep up.
Some of that makes sense, but a lot of those runs are coming late, not because lineups are mashing from the first inning on (an early season heat wave in usually pitcher-friendly environments has contributed as well). That’s where I think there’s still some value.
If you’ve got two decent starters and at least competent bullpens, some of these inflated numbers are worth a look to the under. On the flip side, if both teams have relief issues, I’m not overthinking it—those games can still get out of hand quickly. Perhaps even more than bullpen effectiveness, it's paramount to research bullpen availability. Sunday's Reds-Twins game was a perfect example as a late barrage of offense led to us cashing our 'over' ticket.
There are some obvious buy-low spots starting to show up
You’ve got lineups that haven’t really gotten going yet and pitchers with ugly ERAs that don’t match how they’ve actually thrown (FIP is a critical tool). That’s pretty normal this time of year.
The market reacts to results, not always how those results are happening. That’s where you can get ahead of it a bit.
If a team is making decent contact but not getting results, or a pitcher is missing bats but getting burned in a couple innings, those are spots I’m paying attention to.
