2020 NFL Trends Thru Week 9

by Al McMordie

Tuesday, Nov 10, 2020
We're roughly at the halfway point of the 2020 NFL season, so this is a good time to review how the season has gone, from a point spread perspective.

The one thing which jumps out when you look at the numbers is that it's been a "dog" season.  No, I'm not referring to the quality of play, but rather the fact that the underdogs have barked loudly.

Over the first nine weeks, underdogs have gone 77-56, 57.8%.

And they've made money whether at home (27-27, 56.2%) or on the road (50-35, 58.8%).  And whether they were off a win (25-20, 55.5%) or off a loss (44-27, 61.9%).  And also whether their opponent was off a win (40-31, 56.3%) or a loss (30-15, 66.6%).

They've been especially good in the weekday (non-Sunday) games, as they've cashed 14 of 21 (66.6%), including a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced as an underdog of +4.5 or less points.

The worst category for underdogs has been if they were off an upset win.  In that instance, they've burned money with a 10-13 (43.4%) record.

With respect to over/unders, the games have largely been high-scoring, with the Overs going 71-59-3.  In this set, the division games have largely been responsible for the Overs, as they've gone 27-17-1 Over, while non-division games have gone 44-42-2 Over.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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