Kansas City has gone "over" its season win total seven years straight and it's once again favored to win the Super Bowl this time around as well. Pretty much everything has to go right to go 12-4 though (the total at BookMaker
is 11.5 wins) and I think that there could be reason to believe that KC will finally take a step back this season and fail to go "over" its season win total.
The Chiefs play in a "weak" division, but the AFC West is predicted to be much more competitive this season, as both Denver and Las Vegas have made plenty of moves in the off-season.
The Chiefs are a heavy favorite on September 10th to open the season vs. Houston, but that's then followed by an extremely tough stretch which sees them play back to back games road games at the Chargers and Baltimore, followed by New England and Las Vegas at home.
Strength of schedule is a key factor in determining season long O/U wagers and it doesn't get any easier for Kansas City after that with back-to-back road games at Buffalo and Denver. That's then followed by home games vs. the Jets and Panthers. After that it's two games on the road in Las Vegas and at Tampa Bay, followed by at home vs. Denver, at Miami, at New Orleans and then it's finished off with back-to-back home games vs. the Falcons and Chargers.
One of the crucial factors that KC has had working in its favor over the years has been its "home field" advantage. But, will there even be fans in the stands this season? No matter what happens, this will be a "different" campaign for both players and fans alike and the Chiefs clear "home field advantage" could very well be negated completely this year.
Considering all of the different factors I've listed above here, I definitely think that the "under" 11.5 season wins (at +108 odds at BookMaker
) for the Kansas City Chiefs is worth a second look this season.