Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Game time: 11 a.m. ET; Dec. 29, 2021
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Virginia -2
BetMGM: Virginia -2.5
Caesars: Virginia -2
Season record
SMU: 8-4
Virginia: 6-6
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SMU - Virginia preview and analysis
An era will come to an end at the Fenway Bowl. Bronco Mendenhall will coach his final game with the Virginia Cavaliers when they face the SMU Mustangs.
Mendenhall, after 31 years of coaching, will step aside after this game. Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott will take over as head coach starting next season, trying to build off the strong foundation Mendenhall created at Virginia.
It’s safe to say Mendenhall put forth one of the best runs the program has ever had. Not since a run of 2002-05 did Virginia have four bowl appearances in five seasons, and Mendenhall got them that far plus an Orange Bowl appearance in 2019.
But Elliott is coming into a situation where he’ll feel right at home with this offense. He’ll have quarterback Brennan Armstrong returning for his senior year after he threw for 4,444 yards and 31 touchdowns. Elliott had Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson while he was the offensive coordinator at Clemson. There’s something there for Elliott to build around.
Virginia’s defense is what propelled things for Mendenhall’s teams in the past few years, but it took a step back this season allowing 31.8 points per game, while the offense did what it could to score almost 35 a game. Armstrong’s leading target, Dontayvion Wicks, reeled in 1,203 yards and nine touchdowns, while Keytaon Thompson is 10 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season off a team-best 78 catches.
Virginia’s running game hasn’t been that bad, but there wasn’t a back to break from the pack this season. Wayne Taulapapa led the way with 324 yards on 5.2 yards per carry, but Armstrong had nine rushing touchdowns on top of his stellar passing season.
The Cavaliers’ defense combined for only 18 sacks this season led by Mandy Alonso’s 3.5, but Nick Jackson led the defense with 117 tackles and 2.5 sacks. They also had eight total interceptions but defensive back Anthony Johnson and safety Joey Blount had three each.
At the end of the day, the Virginia defense may not be as dominant as it once was, but it’s going to put up more of a fight than the SMU defense will. It’s a group that’s given up nearly 280 passing yards per game. But something’s got to give between these two teams that struggled to close the season. Virginia ended the year losing four straight, including three to ranked teams (BYU, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh) and then to in-state rival Virginia Tech.
The SMU passing attack will be a great test for Virginia, led by quarterback Tanner Mordecai in a year that he threw 3,628 yards and 39 touchdowns. The Mustangs lost four of their last five to end the season but the pass-first attack of Mordecai was hardly to blame. In four of the last five games, Mordecai threw nine touchdowns to four interceptions and completed 65 percent of his passes in three of those games.
The one notable clunker was against the College Football Playoff-bound Cincinnati Bearcats, where Mordecai finished 15 of 26 for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Like Virginia, Mordecai has a deep threat, too, in wide receiver Danny Gray. He hauled in a team-best 803 yards and nine touchdowns; the endzone grabs tied Rashee Rice for tops on the team. Rice had a team-best 64 receptions. The biggest difference is SMU has a running game that complements that passing attack well. Tre Siggers and Ulysses Bentley IV were one of the top running back tandems in the AAC by combining for 1,337 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.
If SMU is going to have an advantage in this game, it’s going to be on the ground and not via the air. Which goes completely against the norm from what we’ve been accustomed to from the Mustangs.
Jim Leavitt will coach the Mustangs in the game. Sonny Dykes is leaving the program to coach TCU.
Prediction
Don’t underestimate the way the coaching angle is played here. The Mustangs aren’t playing for Dykes anymore, but Virginia is sending off its coach for the final time. The Cavaliers will play hard for their coach. Coupled with how SMU struggled down the stretch, I like Armstrong in the battle of quarterbacks. Virginia by 10
Betting trends
Virginia is 3-3 ATS in its last six as a neutral field favorite.
Virginia is 11-2 ATS off an over in its last 13.
SMU is 6-15 ATS off a conference game in its last 21 instances.
Statistical leaders
SMU:
Passing: Tanner Mordecai – 3,628 yards, 39 TD, 12 INT
Rushing: Tre Siggers – 727 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Danny Gray – 803 yards, 9 TD
Virginia:
Passing: Brennan Armstrong – 4,444 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Wayne Taulapapa – 324 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Dontayvion Wicks – 1,203 yards, 9 TD
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