New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/23/2023

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 23, 2023

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +125, Red Sox -145; Over/Under:  10.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +125, Red Sox -145; Over/Under:  10.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +120, Red Sox -145; Over/Under:  10.5 runs

New York Mets:  45-51 (4th place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  51-46 (4th place, AL East)

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New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off of a loss but won their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-51 record overall and have a road record of 22-29. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday and the series opener still to be played on Saturday after getting suspended on Friday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Max Scherzer is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Carlos Carrasco is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 5 Ks on 6 hits through 4.2 IP against the Chicago White Sox.

The Red Sox are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-46 record overall and have a home record of 26-22. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday and the 1st game still to be finished on Saturday after getting suspended on Friday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .763 OPS. James Paxton is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Brennan Bernardino is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 1-0 with a 2.48 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 2 strikeouts on 1 hit through 2 innings played against the Oakland Athletics.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams have been struggling this season but the Mets still have a losing record on the season while the Red Sox are above .500 and starting to play a lot better lately as they try to climb the standings. The Mets have struggled a lot this year with an offense that hasn't been great but they also have Carrasco starting in this game and he has been really up and down this season. He has been giving up a ton of runs in a lot of his starts and the Red Sox do have one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, they will take advantage of the scoring opportunities they get here. The Mets don't have a great offense though and even though the Red Sox are going with Brennan Bernardino here, he hasn't been bad in his appearances and he will do enough to keep the Mets offense at bay here. The Red Sox offense will be able to carry them in this game as they take advantage of a struggling Mets team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game.

Mets Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 23, 2023 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 6 Mets 3.

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New York Mets: 46-52 (-21.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 5-18 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 11-6 OVER after allowing 8 runs or more. 36-28 OVER in an inter-league game.

Boston Red Sox: 31-20 (+13.6 units) on the moneyline after a win. 29-11 (+20.6 units) on the moneyline after 2 or more consecutive home games. 29-18 OVER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better. 25-18 OVER at home when the total is 10 to 10.5.

New York Mets:  T. Pham (DH) Out Fri - Groin. S. Marte (CF) Out indefinitely - Migraine. S. Coonrod (RP) Late July - Back. T. Locastro (CF) Late July - Thumb. E. Uceta (RP) Mid Aug - Knee. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.

Boston Red Sox:  B. Bello (SP) Out indefinitely - Personal. C. Sale (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. C. Kluber (SP) Late July - Shoulder. G. Whitlock (RP) Late July - Elbow. J. Schreiber (RP) Late July - Back. R. McGuire (C) Late July - Oblique. P. Reyes (3B) Late July - Abdominal. K. Ort (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. W. Mills (RP) out for season - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Out indefinitely - Face. T. Story (2B) Late July - Elbow. Z. Kelly (RP) Early Sept - Elbow. A. Mondesi (SS) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“I didn’t know whether to charge or not charge it and then eventually as an infielder you either have to make a decision to retreat or go get the ball. I did neither and it ate me up and that’s what caused the error.” - Pete Alonso after their loss against the White Sox in their game on Thursday.

“He’s got good stuff. He was able to use the sinker in after slowing them down, and we didn’t do much.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the A’s in their game on Tuesday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) CF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Jeff McNeil (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Mark Canha (R) LF

Luis Guillorme (L) 2B

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Justin Turner (R) 2B

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Rafael Devers (L) 3B

Adam Duvall (R) CF

Alex Verdugo (L) RF

Triston Casas (L) 1B

Connor Wong (R) C

Yu Chang (R) SS

Batting Average:  Michael Perez (.571)

Hits:  Brandon Nimmo (95)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (26)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (63)

Stolen Bases:  Starling Marte (24)

Wins:  Max Scherzer (8)

Saves:  David Robertson (13)

ERA:  Edwin Uceta (0.00)

Batting Average:  Masataka Yoshida (.317)

Hits:  Masataka Yoshida (104)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (23)

RBI:  Rafael Devers (73)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (17)

Wins:  Brayan Bello (7)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (20)

ERA:  Chris Martin (1.52)

Managers:

New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)

Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (5th season, 3rd consecutive)