New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/06/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Saturday, May 6, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Knicks +3, Heat -3; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Knicks +3, Heat -3; Over/Under:  208.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Knicks +3.5, Heat -3.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

New York Knicks:  47-35 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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New York Knicks:  6-4 last 10

Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

The Knicks finished the regular season with a 47-35 record overall and they were 24-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Miami Heat in their last game. Jalen Brunson led the team in points in that game with 30 while Julius Randle was next on the team with 25 points. Josh Hart led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Julius Randle led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 45.1% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 70% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.1 PPG against them. The Knicks have an ATS record of 48-37-4 this season and their O/U record is 44-43-2.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the New York Knicks in their last games. Caleb Martin led the team in points in that game with 22 while Gabe Vincent was next on the team with 21 points. Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Caleb Martin and Bam Adebayo each led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 44.7% from the field, 34.7% from 3-point range, and 70.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 37-51-3 this season and their O/U record is 47-44.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the 5th seeded Knicks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. This series is all tied up 1-1 after the Knicks took game 2 of this series but they didn't look great in that game. They were trailing the entire game against a Heat team that was missing Jimmy Butler, and the Knicks also had Juliur Randle back in their lineup too. Now the Knicks have to go to Miami for the next 2 games and they have been better in road games this year, but the Heat could be getting Butler back for this game and they have already given the Knicks all they can handle without him. The Heat will have a major advantage on their home court here with Butler back in the lineup but even if Butler sits out here, the Heat have enough talent and depth to win this game. The Heat have already taken the home advantage in this series with that road win and now they just need to defend their home court for the rest of the series and they have already won every home game in these playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Knicks Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, May 6, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 104 Knicks 93.

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New York Knicks: 28-15 ATS in road games. 18-7 ATS off a home win. 14-5 OVER after a win by 6 points or less. 16-9 OVER off a home win.

Miami Heat: 20-37 ATS as a favorite. 10-26 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 11-6 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3. 15-8 OVER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5. 

New York Knicks:  T. Keels (SG) Out Indefinitely - Illness. I. Roby (SF) Out Indefinitely - Ankle. J. Sims (C) out for season - Shoulder. D. Washington Jr. (PG) Out indefinitely - Hip.

Miami Heat:  J. Butler (PF) Ques Sat - Ankle. V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

“I thought Julius gutted it out, played tough. I thought Jalen was fantastic. RJ big, big start to the game for us, so we had a number of guys step up to get it done.” - Tom Thibodeau after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Tuesday, game 2 of this series.

“Obviously we feel a certain way right now that we weren’t able to find a way to get this win, but we’ll get over it and we’ll get ready for Saturday.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Knicks in their game on Tuesday, game 2 of this series.

PG Jalen Brunson

SG RJ Barrett

SF Josh Hart

PF Julius Randle

C Mitchell Robinson

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: J. Randle (25.1)

APG: J. Brunson (6.2)

Reb/G: J. Randle (10)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

New York Knicks: Tom Thibodeau (3rd season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)