Game Time: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 31st, 2021 

Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: CBS

Circa:  Point Spread: Chargers -4  : O/U 48.5

Caesars: Spread:  Chargers -4.5 : O/U 49

BetMGM:  Spread:  Chargers -4; : O/U 49

Patriots: 3-4

Chargers: 4-2

Matchups at this time of the year are supposed to create separation. Fanduel Sportsbook has the Patriots as 4 point underdogs and that seems to be the consensus. Each franchise in this game is in flux.  The Chargers are going from perennially bad to contender behind Justin Herbert and the explosive offense he brings… The Patriots are moving from perennial contender to afterthought behind Mac Jones and the interceptions the rookie throws. Ignore NBC Sunday Night Football because this game could be the crowning of a new AFC powerhouse… and in Inglewood… who would have predicted that?

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Recent Form The Patriots have lost and won and lost and won all season long.  Up and down.  Up and down.  They have lost to the Miami Dolphins, the New Orleans Saints, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Dallas Cowboys.  They have beaten the Houston Texans and the New York Jets….  That’s right, if it weren’t for the worst teams in the league the Patriots would most likely be winless.  

The Chargers are winners.  At 4-2, their two losses have been to the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 and the Baltimore Ravens 34-6. Both really good teams.  They are coming off their bye week and 14 days of rest.  Young quarterback Justin Herbert is about to be anointed by the whole league.  They have beaten the Washington Football Team, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Cleveland Browns.

 

 

The Patriots score 25.6 ppg on 355 yards per game.  Tom Brady is long gone and happy with the Tampa Bay Bucs.  The patriots offense needs to get on with it.

The Chargers score 24.7 ppg on 377.5 yards per game.  

The Patriots defense gives up 20 points per game on 350.6 yards per game.  The Patriots secondary is struggling.  Kyle Dugger leads the team in tackles. 

Joey Bosa has 3.5 sacks for the Chargers and he will get lots more in the 10 games left. The Chargers defense gives up 25 points per game on 364. 3 yards per game.

On both offense and defense these teams are desperately close.  They score about the same number of touchdowns… They give up about the same number of yards and points… yet the Chargers are celebrating an ascendancy toward greatness and the Patriots are reminiscing about days gone by.  Why?  The record.  That is it.  

Our prediction for Sunday, October 31st is… Chargers 35 - Patriots 11

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The Patriots are 5-11 ATS when playing a winning team over the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers are 1-4 ATS as a home favorite 3.5 - 7 PTS over the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers are 4-2 ATS in all games this season.

Patriots: DL Carl Davis (wrist) Quest ** TE Jonnu Smith (shoulder) Quest ** DB Devin McCourty (ab) Quest ** OL Shaq Mason (ab) Quest ** LB Ronnie Perkins (ankle) Quest ** CB Shaun Wade (concussion) Quest * LB Dont’a Hightower (elbow) Quest

Chargers: S Nasir Adderley (hip) Quest ** LB Drue Tranquill (chest) Quest

Patriots:  QB Mac Jones, RB Damien Harris, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Nelson Agholor WR Matthew Slater, TE Hunter Henry, LT Isaiah Wynn, LG Ted Karas, C David Andrews, RG Shaq Mason, RT Mike Onwenu

Chargers: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Mike Williams, WR Keenan Allen, Wr Jalen Guyton, TE Jared Cook, FB Gabe nabers, LT Rashawn Slater, LG Matt Feiler, C Corey Liinsley, RG Michael Schofield III, RT Storm Norton

COACHES

Patriots:  Bill Belichick.  By the numbers, Bill is the best NFL coach who has ever done it… who has ever lived… and he doesn’t want to leave yet.  He wants to rebuild this team and run back some Super Bowl glory (as if he hasn’t had enough).  Years ago he smartly left the New York Jets job before it even started to be with the Patriots.  Six Super Bowls later he will call the shots as to when he steps down.

Chargers: Brandon Staley.  Brandon is the current head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers.  He is 38 years old.  He has an exciting group of players and he absolutely does not belong, nor has he earned this job.   He was in the right place at the right time and he has the right LOOK to make NFL owners comfortable.

Partly cloudy.  69* for the high.  Humidity 76%.  Wind 5 mph (which means no noticeable wind).  LA in October is the best football weather anywhere.