Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/01/2024

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA 

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +14, Celtics -14; Over/Under:  199.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +14, Celtics -14; Over/Under:  199.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +13.5, Celtics -13.5; Over/Under:  199.5 points

Miami Heat:  46-36 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Boston Celtics:  64-18 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

Boston Celtics:  7-3 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 46-36 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 24-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Boston Celtics in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Celtics in game 4 of this series, Bam Adebayo led the team in points in that game with 25 while Tyler Herro was next on the team with 19 points. Bam Adebayo led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 17. They were 40.7% from the field, 27.3% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108.4 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 43-43-2 this season and their O/U record is 37-51.

The Celtics are entering this game with a 64-18 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 37-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Miami Heat in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Heat in game 4 of this series, Derrick White led the team in points in that game with 38 while Jayson Tatum was next on the team with 20 points. Jrue Holiday led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 41.9% from the field, 37.8% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.2 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 44-37-5 this season and their O/U record is 44-42.

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 14 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for Round 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics have a 3-1 series lead after winning game 4 of this series on the road. The Celtics have looked great in this series with all 3 of their wins coming by double digits. They were shocked in game 2 with an upset loss on their home court, but they responded nicely on the road with 2 wins in a row in their last 2 games. Now they have a chance to eliminate the Heat in this game and get their payback from last season's playoffs. The Heat have looked better in their road games this season so it is no surprise that they lost both games at home to the best team in the NBA this season, but the Heat aren't going to be any better on the road here since they have looked terrible in their games without Butler. The Celtics have the best home record in the NBA with their 37-4 home record and even though they got their revenge from that home loss with 2 wins in Miami, they still lost their last game played on their home court and they will be looking to get that back here by closing out the series in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Celtics Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, May 1, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Celtics 114 Heat 92.

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Miami Heat: 4-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. 14-27 ATS in the 5th game of a playoff series. 2-6 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games. 18-9 UNDER as a road underdog. 8-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent. 7-1 UNDER after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more.

Boston Celtics: 8-4 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 10-4 ATS in the first round of the playoffs. 25-17 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 30-22 UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series. 12-5 UNDER after a combined score of 190 points or less. 

Miami Heat:  J. Jaquez Jr. (SG) Ques Wed - Leg. J. Butler (PF) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Rozier (PG) Out indefinitely - Neck. J. Richardson (SG) out for season - Shoulder.

Boston Celtics:  K. Porzingis (PF) Ques Wed - Achilles.

“Offensively, we struggled again. We had some decent looks early on, weren't able to knock those down, and Derrick White was very good tonight — obviously. ... He was just very efficient, very good.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Celtics in game 4 of this series on Monday.

“We had to keep fighting and play desperate in a way.” - Jayson Tatum after their win against the Heat in game 4 of this series on Monday.

PG Tyler Herro

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr.

PF Nikola Jovic

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Derrick White

SF Jaylen Brown

PF Jayson Tatum

C Kristaps Porzingis

PPG: J. Butler (20.8)

APG: T. Rozier (5.6)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.4)

PPG: J. Tatum (26.9)

APG: D. White (5.2)

Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.1)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)

Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (2nd season)