Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/07/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -2.5, Heat +2.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -2.5, Heat +2.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -2.5, Heat +2.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  8-2 last 10

Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 19-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Miami Heat in their last game. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 41 while Jamal Murray was next on the team with 18 points. Jamal Murray led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 52% from the field, 39.3% from 3-point range, and 86.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 54-44-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-51-1.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Denver Nuggets in their last game. Gabe Vincent led the team in points in that game with 23 while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo each were next on the team with 21 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Kevin Love led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 48.7% from the field, 48.6% from 3-point range, and 90% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 45-56-3 this season and their O/U record is 53-51.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 2.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Western Conference Champion Nuggets and the 8th seeded Eastern Conference Champion Heat for the NBA Finals. This series is all tied up 1-1 after the Heat stole game 2 of this series on the road in the last game. The Heat didn't look good at all in game 1 as they were run out of the building right from the start of the game but they played a lot better in game 2 and have now flipped this series on it's head as they now have the home advantage. They have also taken the momentum on their side after winning game 2 and going back to Miami now for game 3 with a chance to take a 2-1 series lead. The Heat have also been a really good home team in these playoffs while the Nuggets struggled in their road games all season and now all the pressure is going to be on them as the number 1 seed left in the playoffs to steal back home advantage with a road win. The Heat play defense really well in their games though and now that they are at home and don't have to fight the altitude here, they are going to come out even stronger in this game right from the start and try to take a commanding lead of this series on home court. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Nuggets Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, June 7, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 106 Nuggets 99.

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Denver Nuggets: 26-17 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 25-14 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent. 29-9 OVER off a home loss. 10-3 OVER after a close loss by 3 points or less.

Miami Heat: 15-29 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 21-35 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 20-12 OVER against Northwest division opponents. 17-9 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Mid June - Leg.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Mid June - Hand.

“Let’s talk about effort. I mean, this is the NBA Finals and we’re talking about effort. That’s a huge concern of mine. You guys probably thought I was just making up some storyline after Game 1 when I said we didn't play well. We didn't play well. ... This is not the preseason. This is not the regular season. This is the NBA Finals.” - Michael Malone after his team’s loss against the Heat in their game on Sunday.

“Our guys are competitors. They love these kind of moments.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Nuggets in their game on Sunday.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Caleb Martin

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)