Game Time: 10:00 PM ET, Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, California 

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Warriors -9; O/U 226

Fanduel: Warriors -9; O/U 225.5

BetMGM: Warriors -8.5; O/U 225.5

Nuggets: 48-34, 6th place Western Conference; 1-3 playoffs

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference; 3-1 playoffs

A Western Conference NBA Playoffs matchup between the #6 Seed and #3 Seed… with Elimination consequences for the Denver Nuggets.   The Denver Nuggets have the best player in the series.  I’ll say it again, but more pointedly…. Denver Center Nikola Jokic is either the best or second best player in the NBA… which means the world.  Too bad for Denver that next four best NBA players in the series are all Warriors.  There is no dispute that makes any sense about the last statement.  The Nuggets are 1-3 while going 1-3 ATS.  It is rough going for Denver.  

We all know the sob story.  Denver is missing their starting SG and second best player in Jamal Murray… They are also missing PF Michael Porter Jr who is their 3rd best player.  Both guys are permanently missing too.  Jamal is on the shelf til next season… and even if Michael Porter Jr rumbles about playing… MPJ may be done forever… few players in the history of the league have persistent and multiple back surgeries and come out of it as a great player.  We may spend years wondering “when will Porter play… and when will he look like himself?”

The Golden State Warriors had a great season. They spent the first half of it going back and forth with the Phoenix Suns for first place in the conference and the league.  While doing that they were missing sharpshooter SG Klay Thompson who was still recovering from 2 ½ seasons of injury, surgery, rehab, rinse, repeat.  When Klay returned, PF Draymond Green went down for a month.  When Draymond returned, PG Stephen Curry (yeah… that guy!) went down for a month. The result was that the BIG THREE in Golden State only played together for 11 minutes.  It did something greater however.  Those guys missing time allowed for SG Jordan Poole to get all the development he needed.  The result is now everyone is back and healthy and the Warriors have a BIG FOUR.  SG Jordan Poole has scored 30 pts, 29 pts, 27 pts, and 11 pts in this series.  The Warriors lost the game that Poole scored 11 pts.

The Denver Nuggets are 1-3 in the series and 1-3 ATS. C Nikola Jokic has played great.  Every game this series, every game this season.  He can not do it alone.  In the game before last the Nuggets won because of 37 pts and 18 rbs from Jokic… the key is they also got efficient play from Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, and Monte Morris.  That does not always happen.  Jokic will have another big game… but the chances of Aaron Gordon having another 18 points game with 12 rebounds and 4 assists is unlikely… They are all above Mr Invisible’s averages.

The Golden State Warriors are a win away from the next series and they are at home.  At 3-1 in the series and 3-1 ATS they have been dominant.  The regulars were rolling in the last game with 33 points from PG Steph Curry, 32 points from SG Klay Thompson, and 20 points from SF Andrew Wiggins.  The Warriors have everything they need to get the next win except a Center… too bad for Denver that undersized PF Draymond Green (future HOF’er) can play meaningful minutes at Center.  This series is almost over and I’m not done writing this sentence.

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Denver is 49-37 on the season, but 37-48-1 ATS.  They have logged 48 Overs, 36 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 25-18 in road games.

Golden State is 56-30 on the season, but 44-38-4 ATS.  They have notched 39 Overs, 45 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 33-10 in home games.

The Nuggets are 10th in scoring with 112.7 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.1 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 14th with 110.4 ppg allowed from opponents.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/To ratio 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.5 ppg.

Our prediction for Wednesday, April 27th is…..  Warriors 123 - Nuggets 103

Yes, this is a bet for the Warriors to win and cover… but when the Warriors win they have a tendency TO COVER.  The Nuggets will not be able to get one in the Chase Center when Steph, Klay, and Jordan are hitting shots buoyed by the love of the crowd.

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Golden State is 60-35 ATS (including 7-0 ATS its last 7) when playing with revenge from a road upset loss.

Golden State is 7-1 UNDER following 5+ games where it converted 47+ percent of its shots.

Denver is 23 OVER and 9 Under when the total is set between 220 and 229 this season.

Denver is 19-28 ATS off a win this season.

Nuggets: PF Michael Porter JR (back) Out ** SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out 

Warriors: C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Nuggets: PF Jeff Green, SF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, SG Will Barton, PG Monte Morris

Warriors: PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Nuggets: Michael “for now” Malone

Warriors: Steve “Mr. Rings” Kerr