Game Time: 9:10 pm ET, Monday, July 4th, 2022 

Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: MLBN, MLB.tv

DraftKings: Rockies +240, Dodgers -294; O/U 7.5

Caesars:  

PointsBet: Rockies -240, Dodgers +270; O/U 8.5

 

Rockies: 34-44, 5th place (last) National League West

Dodgers: 49-28, 1st place National League West

A National League West matchup between the best and the worst of the division. The 4th of July is a time for Summer fun: a day off, grilled food, beer, and baseball.  This 4th of July the lowly Colorado Rockies will descend on Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles’ Dodger Stadium to take on the top of the line Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s a matchup on the surface that looks entirely one-sided.  The Dodgers are much better than the Rockies…. Yet as the season has played out the Rockies have shown a unique ability to get wins off the #1 NL West Dodgers and the #2 NL West Padres. A divisional familiarity has taken grip of the Rockies and though they don’t win a lot of games they fare well against division rivals no matter how good.  Let’s check the pitching matchup and the numbers before we lay down some cash.

The Colorado Rockies have won 5 of their last 10 games.  They went 2-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks (division rival), 2-1 against THESE Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-2 against the Minnesota Twins, and 0-1 against the Miami Marlins.  The Rockies pitching is a whole load of awful… but their batting line-up is among the finest in the league… first in fact in batting average.  The Rockies rely on CJ Cron who leads the team in home runs and Yonathan Daza who leads the team in batting average.. After them the Rockies need 1 or 2 more guys to step it up if they want to get that league leading batting average to translate into more runs per game.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 3-1 against the San Diego Padres (a feat that gave the Dodgers some breathing room in first place), 1-2 against THESE Colorado Rockies, and 2-1 against the Atlanta Braves.  Much has been made of late about new acquisition Freddie Freeman openly weeping about wanting to be back on his old team the Atlanta Braves, with whom he beat the Dodgers in last season’s World Series.  Word from the clubhouse is that Freddie doesn’t want out of the Dodgers, he’s just an emotional guy who suffered a temporary spell of sentimentality.  The deeper, darker story is that Freddie was willing to give the Braves a home team discount when he became a free agent in the off-season.  Freddie’s agents (now fired) may have failed to express how much the Braves wanted him back in order to avoid taking any type of deal that would have been less than market value.  At the end of the day freddie is a Dodger on a $162 million dollar deal… so he will stay a Dodger.  

The Rockies have a light injury list.. But very impactful.  Two starting pitchers are out for the whole season and two other starting pitchers will be unavailable until after this game is played.  Those nagging injuries have derailed what could have been a good team this season.  They have the batting but need something on the mound.

The Dodgers have a big bulging injury list!  They have soooo many pitchers on the injury list that the absences are revealing what may have been the deepest pitching group in all of baseball.  Missing pitchers for the Dodgers are Trevor Bauer (who will never pitch an MLB game again), Treinen, Nelson, Hudson, Ferguson, and Gonzalez are all capable relief pitchers… while they are also missing Starters: David Price (rest), Danny Duffy (hand), Andrew Heaney (shoulder), Walker Buehler (elbow), Dustin May (elbow).  That is a lot of missing arms to still be top-three from the mound in the league.  When some of those starters return from injury in time to set a postseason rotation?... Man these Dodgers will undoubtedly have the best defense in baseball.

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The Rockies are 11th in scoring with 4.56 runs per game, 1st in batting average with .261, and 6th in OBP with .325.

The Dodgers are 1st in runs per game with 5.08, 6th in batting average with .252, and 1st in OBP with .328.

The Rockies pitchers are 28th in the MLB in ERA with 4.98, 27th in WHIP with 1.43, and the fielders are 30th (last place) in errors with 58 on the season.

The Dodgers pitchers are 3rd in ERA with 2.94, 3rd in WHIP with 1.10, and teh fielders are 8th in errors with 37 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Monday July 4th is… Dodgers 9 - Rockies 4

 

The league leading in runs per game Dodgers will be hosting a day game on the 4th of July…. All complete with a fireworks show to close it out just after Sunset.  The Dodgers will smack the cover off the ball several times with Kyle Freeland on the mound.  Bet on the Dodgers.  

 

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The Rockies are 53-46 against left-handed starters the last 3 years.

The Dodgers are 243-73 (+62 UNITS) as a home favorite of -200 or more since 1997.

Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland is 5-1 against Division opponents this season.

Julio Urias is 3-3 against division opponents this season.

Rockies: LHP Kyle Freeland, 4-5, 4.31 ERA, 58 strikeouts in 85 innings pitched.  1.38 WHIP.  The 29 year old is a run of the mill MLB pitcher.  He;s a drip below .500 on the season… and a drip below .500 for his career.  His nickname should be “Drip Below” instead of the inside joke “F. Stanley”

Dodgers: LHP Julio Urias, 6-6, 2.64 ERA, 76 strikeouts in 81 innings pitched. 1.03 WHIP.  El Culichi is 25 years old now… It was way back in 2016 when the then teenage phenom got his first start for the Dodgers.  His arm is powerful, his stuff is good his career record as a starter is 38-16.  At 6-6 this season the Dodgers are scratching their heads at when the big jump to ACE will happen?  He has the tools, yet still he needs a defining pitch or approach to be big time.  Until then he will remain the 5th starter in a great rotation.  

Rockies: LF, Connor Joe, CF Yonathan Daza, RF Charlie Blackmon, DH CJ Cron, 2B Brendan Rodgers, 3B Ryan McMahon, SS Jose Iglesias, C Elias Diaz, 1B Elehuris Montero

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, DH Will Smith, 2B Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner,. C Austin Barnes, LF Gavin Lux

 

Rockies: Bud Black

Dodgers: Dave Roberts

Sunny.  77*, Humidity 59%, precipitation 10%, wind 7 mph, Patriotism 100%.  A perfect day for baseball in Los Angeles.