Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Baylor -3.5; Baylor -175, Air Force +150; O/U 43.5
FanDuel: Baylor -3.5; Baylor -178, Air Force +146; O/U 43.5
BetMGM: Baylor -3.5; Baylor -185, Air Force +150; O/U 43
Caesars: Baylor -3; Baylor -164, Air Force +140; O/U 43
Season record
Baylor: 6-6
Air Force: 9-3
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Baylor - Air Force preview, analysis and prediction
Baylor analysis
I can understand why the Baylor Bears are favored in the Armed Forces Bowl. One, they’re a Big 12 team. They’re going to get the better of most teams and most conferences, especially the one that has won nine games from the Mountain West. But even as a 4-point favorite, we’re not really sure what Baylor team we’re going to get in this one.
The Bears lost their last three to close the regular season with losses to Kansas State, TCU and Texas. Those are three worthy teams to lose to, but the fact is they still lost three in a row after winning three straight. The Bears are 4-2-0 in their last six against the spread, including failing to cover as 10-point underdogs in the 38-27 loss to Texas.
Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen completed 18 of 36 passes for just 179 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to the Longhorns. He’s certainly not Gerry Bohannon from last year’s top team, but Baylor is still anchored by a strong defense that will be tasked with slowing down one of the better running games in college football.
And if you’re wondering, Baylor gives up just 137 rushing yards per game. A true test for both units in this game.
Air Force analysis
The Air Force Falcons are on the complete opposite of the spectrum as it pertains to finishing the season strong. They closed the regular season with four straight wins but only covered in two of them; not the 22-point favorite night in a 12-point win over Colorado State, or the 7-point fail-to-cover in the 6-point win over Army.
But Air Force has been able to get by all year long by running the football. Brad Roberts, the Falcons’ leading rusher, ran for 187 yards and a touchdown on 35 carries in the win over San Diego State to close the regular season. They didn’t need a star-studded performance (they never do) from quarterback Haaziq Daniels. He passed just twice and ran for 30 yards on 11 carries.
What you see is what you get with Air Force. They’re going to try and run the clock, kill the clock, with the ground game and attempt to win the possession game. That’s going to be tough to do against a tough Baylor defense that is a smart unit.
Air Force is just 6-6-0 against the spread this year. They’re not a team that you can count on to be reliable on the books. The fact that they’re getting four points is a lot better of a scenario.
Prediction
I really am tempted on the underdog here, especially since Air Force usually finds a way to get the running game going. Air Force’s defense will need to be at its best. I just don’t trust Shapen when he’s under duress. It’s in Texas, but I don’t like how Baylor operates. Air Force by 7
Betting trends
Air Force is 45-27 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
Air Force is 21-8 ATS on the road after allowing 9 points or less in the last game since 1992.
Baylor is 8-1 ATS in road games after 3 straight conference games the lat 3 seasons.
Baylor is 14-4 ATS in December games since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Baylor:
Passing: Blake Shapen – 2,602 yards, 16 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Richard Reese – 962 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Monterey Baldwin – 565 yards, 4 TD
Air Force:
Passing: Haaziq Daniels – 733 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Brad Roberts – 1,612 yards, 15 TD
Receiving: David Cormier – 384 yards, 4 TD
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