Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/04/2023

Game Time: 7:08 pm ET, Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Venue:  American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI 

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +114, Brewers -135; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +110, Brewers -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +110, Brewers -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  84-78 (2nd place, NL West)

Milwaukee Brewers:  92-70 (1st place, NL Central)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  4-6 last 10

Milwaukee Brewers:  5-5 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 4 game losing streak and got swept 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Houston Astros in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 84-78 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Brewers on Wednesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they won game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Zac Gallen is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 7 Ks on 7 hits through 6.1 IP against the Houston Astros.

The Brewers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 92-70 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they lost game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Corbin Burnes was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Freddy Peralta is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 BB with 4 strikeouts on 9 hits through 3 innings played against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 2nd game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the NLDS and the Diamondbacks now have a 1-0 series lead after winning the 1st game on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks won 6-3 as their bats really came to play and that is huge for the D-Backs since they have been relying on offense all season. The Brewers have a really good pitching staff but their offense has been struggling all season and if their pitchers can't keep runs off the board here, the Brewers don't really have the offense to compete with the D-Backs. The Diamondbacks will also have their ace on the mound here as Gallen is starting and he has been their most consistent starter all season. They managed to get by the 1st game with a rookie pitcher on the mound while the Brewers burned through their ace and now that the roles are reversed here, the Diamondbacks are going to take advantage in this game and knock the Brewers out of the playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Brewers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 4, 2023 (7:08 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 8 Brewers 3.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 35-44 (-11.6 units) on the moneyline in the second half of the season. ZAC GALLEN is 7-11 (-5.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 23-15 UNDER in playoff games. ZAC GALLEN is 11-6 UNDER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125.

Milwaukee Brewers: 92-70 (+13.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 69-44 (+22.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 20-9 UNDER in playoff games. 45-23 UNDER in October games.  

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Melancon (RP) out for season - Shoulder. S. McGough (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Fletcher (RF) out for season - Finger. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

Milwaukee Brewers:  J. Bukauskas (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Ruf (DH) Early Oct - Knee. J. Winker (DH) Early Oct - Back. J. Mejia (SP) out for season - Shoulder. E. Peguero (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. Vieira (RP) Out indefinitely - Calf. A. Ashby (SP) out for season - Shoulder. J. Wilson (RP) out for season - Arm.

“Maybe we were a little flat, most of us were probably up a little late last night. For sure there was a little lull in focus and energy. I get that, but let's push that aside.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Astros in their last game of the regular season on Sunday.

“It’s going to be a battle. That’s how it works now. Nobody is going to care about rest. It’s a three-game series where you just go after it and you pull out all the stops.” - Craig Counsell after his team’s win against the Cubs in their final game of the season on Sunday.

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Tommy Pham (R) DH

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Evan Longoria (R) 3B

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Christian Yelich (L) LF

William Contreras (R) C

Carlos Santana (S) 1B

Mark Canha (R) DH

Sal Frelick (L) CF

Willy Adames (R) SS

Josh Donaldson (R) 3B

Brice Turang (L) 2B

Tyrone Taylor (R) RF

Batting Average:  Seby Zavala (.357)

Hits:  Corbin Carroll (161)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (33)

RBI:  Christian Walker (103)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (54)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (17)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (13)

ERA:  Peter Strzelecki (0.00)

Batting Average:  Abraham Toro (.444)

Hits:  William Contreras (157)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (24)

RBI:  Willy Adames (80)

Stolen Bases:  Christian Yelich (28)

Wins:  Freddy Peralta (12)

Saves:  Devin Williams (36)

ERA:  Alex Claudio (0.00)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)

Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell (9th season)