NFL MONDAY NIGHT DISCOUNTED O/U DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time
- 12/05/2022 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 41 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints’ offense hit rock bottom last week against the 49ers by failing to score a point and only generating 260 yards of offense. It is dangerous to fade offenses embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But don’t sleep on this New Orleans defense that ranks 15th in the league in DVOA. They have held their last three opponents to 17.7 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 345.8 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Saints have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders in December. Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. They are scoring only 18.2 PPG this season — and they have scored just 18.0 PPG in their last three games. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Buccaneers' defense surrendered 367 yards to the Browns last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against division rivals. Tampa Bay has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in Tampa Bay Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.
