Nelly’s Monday NBA Knockout 75% RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks
- Time
- 12/05/2022 07:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Oklahoma City Thunder +6 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Atlanta is in 4th place in the Eastern Conference for the moment but the Hawks are only 13-10 with a +0.7 average scoring differential. Atlanta opened the season 7-3, meaning they are just 6-7 in the past 13 games even after back-to-back wins Wednesday and Friday last week. This is a potential flat spot on the schedule following a big win over Denver and two off days while a trip to New York is up next on the schedule. Oklahoma City is only -1.0 in average scoring differential and the Thunder have 10 wins this season despite playing nine of 23 games vs. the league’s top 10. The Thunder are 1-8 in those games but 9-5 vs. everyone else, a group Atlanta resides in. There is not a significant gap in the efficiency profiles for these teams with only a slight defensive edge for the Hawks, that could be offset with the contrasting strengths of schedule. In 10 of the past 13 games the Thunder have either won or lost by a margin of six or fewer points including a pair of overtime losses. Oklahoma City is the #6 scoring offense in the NBA and while the scoring defense has been poor, the Thunder have middle-of-the-pack defensive numbers in field goal rate and 3-point shooting allowed. The Hawks are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA converting at just over 32 percent this season and Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a favorite of more than three points and 2-4 ATS vs. losing teams this season. In contrast the Thunder are 7-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams while 12-4 ATS when dogged by three or more points.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
