Nelly’s Monday NFL Total Delivery 8-3 MNF
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time
- 12/05/2022 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 41 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Saints have gone 4-2 vs. Tom Brady since he joined the Buccaneers but Tampa Bay held on in the first meeting this season back in Week 2. Tampa Bay is still the NFC West leaders even after a painful overtime loss to Cleveland last week but the chances of moving out of the #4 seed and avoiding Dallas in the wild card round are now slim. The Saints continue a bizarre season, shutout last week in San Francisco and facing back-to-back road games on opposite ends of the country. New Orleans has the seventh best net yards per play in the league despite the 4-8 record but added two more turnovers last week to a league-worst -14 on the season. The market has driven this number downward from opening at -6 but the Saints have had success in this pairing and Tampa Bay has the fifth fewest takeaways in the NFL to likely limit the errors for the Saints. The preferable option may be ‘under’ with this total sitting on the key number of 41. Teams off shutout losses have fared well in recent NFL history, particularly in the road underdog role but the ‘under’ is also on a 25-16 run for teams off a shutout loss, including going 3-0 this season. Last season these teams combined for 39 points in two games and the ‘under’ has hit in four of the six meetings since Brady joined the Buccaneers. New Orleans has scored 50 points combined the past four games while Tampa Bay has scored more than 22 points just once all season. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
