ASA's NFL Monday Night Smash! 71% this SEASON
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time
- 12/05/2022 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
New Orleans Saints +3.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - NFL teams off shutout losses have long been a very strong play the following week. Since 2015 teams that get shutout one week have a spread record of 26-12-3 ATS the following week. As an underdog off a shutout loss, those teams are 71-55-2 ATS the last 128 games that fall into that situation. New Orleans lost @ San Francisco 13-0 last week and we like them to cover here. Despite the 13-0 final, the Saints played a very good San Fran team pretty even. They each averaged 4.9 YPP but the Niners rank 14 more offensive snaps due to 2 New Orleans turnovers. On top of that, the Saints missed a FG, fumbled at the SF 6-yard line and were shut out on downs at the SF 4-yard line so they definitely had their chances. New Orleans is much better than their 4-8 record with a YPP differential of +0.5 which ranks 8th the league. Tampa is 14th in that category at +0.09. The Bucs are off an loss in OT vs a below average Cleveland team and since starting the season 2-0, in their last 9 games Tampa is 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Their 3 wins during that stretch have come by 3, 5, and 6 points vs teams that have a combined record of 14-19. They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 76 points or 8.4 PPG as they continue to be overvalued. In the first game this season, TB won 20-10 but they were outgained 4.7 YPP to 4.0 YPP and gifted 5 turnovers by the Saints including a 68 yard pick 6. Prior to that New Orleans had won 7 of the previous 8 match ups. Tampa is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less this year and we like the Saints to get this cover on Monday night.
