Fargo's NFL Monday Primetime Dominator (16-1)
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time
- 12/05/2022 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
New Orleans Saints +3.5 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss at Cleveland last week and will be a popular play this week in a bounce back spot but in the first two instances this season coming off a loss following a win prior to that, the Buccaneers lost a second straight game so it is no automatic rebound victory. It has been a bad season for Tampa Bay which is pretty apparent as this offense has been inefficient in getting the ball into the end zone. The Buccaneers have scored more than 22 points only once and they are No. 27 in the league in scoring offense. The passing game has been fine but Tampa Bay is dead last in the league in rushing offense and this is not a good matchup against the Saints defense. New Orleans is ranked No. 7 in passing defense and it allowed only 188 yards passing in the first meeting and that is one of seven times this season the Saints have allowed fewer than 200 yards passing. They get a ton of pressure on the quarterback as the Saints are No. 7 in sack percentage and it gets heightened here against an immobile quarterback. New Orleans is coming off a shutout loss at San Francisco last week which is always a good spot to play on in the next game and it will be catching a depleted Tampa Bay secondary as safety Mike Edwards, safety Antoine Winfield Jr, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting listed as doubtful or questionable. Andy Dalton could have a short leash which has already been lengthened way too long. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams averaging 235 or more passing ypg. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (477) New Orleans Saints
