- At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Robert Dugger. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-48) has lost four games in a row after their 5-4 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday. Cincinnati (42-62) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 3-0 loss at Miami on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee returns home for the first time since July 27th for this NL Central series — and they have won 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 36 of their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record. Lauer gets the start tonight with his 7-3 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander experienced a drop in velocity in June — but he has his zip back on his four-seamer after completing five starts in July where he posted a 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202. He has been more effective at home this season where he enjoys a 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in eight starts, as opposed to his 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 11, starts on the road. Lauer had a 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 66 1/3 innings last year at home at American Family Field. Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 11 games at night with Lauer on the mound. Cincinnati has not scored more than three runs in four straight games — and they have lost 20 of their last 25 games after not scoring more than three runs in three straight games. They stay on the road where they have lost 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. They are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .225 batting average, .277 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .608. They have lost 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals. They counter with Dugger who has a 0-0 record this season with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 12 innings this season between Tampa Bay and then the Reds after he was scooped up off the waiver wire. Cincinnati left the right-hander off their 40-man roster last month — but after their moves at the trade deadline, the ranking Reds decided to give him an audition at the major league level. In 25 2/3 innings last year which included four starts for Seattle, Dugger had an 0-2 record with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. In his 14 2/3 innings on the road, he was saddled with a 10.43 ERA, 2.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .387. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .284 batting average, .370 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .884 during that span. Milwaukee has won 5 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. The Brewers have played 44 games this season priced as a money-line favorite priced higher than -150. They have been upset 18 times under those circumstances — but in their 26 victories, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 19 times. Cincinnati has been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher in 43 games this season. They have pulled the upset 13 times this year — but in their 30 losses in those circumstances, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 25 of those games. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Brewers (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Robert Dugger. Best of luck for us — Frank.