Nelly's Sports - Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

Nelly’s Friday Night AL Playoff Preview

Handicapper
Nelly's Sports
League
MLB
Competition
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins
Time
08/05/2022 08:10 PM
Bet Type
Moneyline
Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -120 (DraftKings)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
Tyler Mahle has been a steady starter this season, but he’ll face added pressure tonight in his Twins debut while facing one of the best lineups he’s faced all season. Mahle has a 4.25 ERA in his last five starts with five home runs allowed and the Minnesota bullpen is in tough shape right now with a 4.43 ERA in the past 10 games and coming off heavy use in the past few days, while juggling a few new pieces to the mix. Toronto has a 2.06 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and the Blue Jays are scoring 5.5 runs per nine vs. right-handers over the past 10 games. Minnesota is batting just .219 in the past 10 games as the offense has been limited since the All Star break and the two-week splits present a massive gap in the numbers with Toronto posting an .815 team OPS while Minnesota has just a .681 team OPS. Former Twin Jose Berrios should be comfortable pitching at Target Field and while Berrios has an elevated 4.96 ERA this season, he has been very sharp in recent weeks. His CSW% is 32.1 percent in the past month and he is on a near-dominant six-start run since July 1 with a 10.5 K/9 and a 3.00 ERA. Minnesota has topped four runs only two times in the past eight games and the bullpen had a disastrous outing yesterday after five shutout innings from Sonny Gray. These teams are only a few games apart in record, but the ceiling is much higher for Toronto and Mahle isn’t likely to be a huge upgrade over the rest of the rotation for Minnesota. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.

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