Larry Ness - Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals

Larry's 10* PERFECT STORM MLB 10*s: 30-17 run

Handicapper
Larry Ness
League
MLB
Competition
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals
Time
08/05/2022 08:10 PM
Bet Type
Moneyline
Pick
Kansas City Royals +100 (DraftKings)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Royals at 8:10 ET. The Red Sox have won four World Series titles since 2004 but Boston struggled to a 24-36 record in the 2020 season, before surprising most by going 92-70 in 2021. The Red Sox made it to the ALCS but lost 4-2 to the Astros. The KC Royals began the current season having missed the postseason in each of the previous SIX years, after making back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost) and 2015 (won). Boston beat Tampa Bay 4-0 on July 4th and stood 45-35. However, the Red Sox would end the first half on a 3-10 run. Boston lost 7-3 last night in KC (opener of a four-game series) and is now just 5-9 to open the second half. Doing the math, Boston has gone 8-19 from July 5 through August 4 to fall to 53-54 (more later). As for KC, the Royals are headed for a SEVENTH straight non-playoff season at 41-64. That's the second worst record in the AL and KC also owns the AL's worst run differential mark at -132. The Red Sox have decided to go with rookie Josh Winckowski (4-5, 5.00 ERA), while KC counters with veteran Zack Greinke (3-6, 4.41 ERA). Winckowski will be facing the Royals for the first time in his career, after making nine starts since his MLB debut back on May 28. The 24-year-old owns a decision in ALL of his nine starts (rare, these days), but after going 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA in his first four starts, he takes the mound tonight 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA in his last five. Most (all?) are familiar with Greinke, who won the AL Cy Young award for KC back in 2019 (16-8, 2.16 ERA). He then won 129 games over a seven-year span (that's 18.4 per season) pitching for the Brewers, Dodgers, D'backs and Astros. He returned to KC for the 2022 season, signing a one-year, $13 million contract on March 16, 2022. He was the Royals' Opening Day starter this season, allowing just one ER over 5.2 innings in a 3-1 KC win (he settled for a no-decision). Greinke enters this contest just 3-6 in 17 starts but look at his away/home breakdown. He's 0-5 (team is 2-7) in nine road starts with a 7.16 ERA. However, in his eight home starts, he's 3-1 (team is 6-2) with a 1.65 ERA. The Red Sox have fallen all the way into last place in the AL East and currently sit FOUR games out of the third wild card with THREE teams ahead of them for that third wild card. Here, they face Greinke, who has posted a 1.30 ERA over his last five home starts, with the Royals winning ALL five. "Batten down the hatches" and W-I-N with KC! Good luck...Larry

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