TDG’s NBA CONF 1ST HALF PLAY OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
- Time
- 05/23/2022 08:40 PM
- Bet Type
- 1st Half Point Spread
- Pick
-
Boston Celtics -4 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NBA Eastern Conference 1st Half Play of the Year is with Boston minus the points in the first half versus Miami at 8:30 pm et.
The injury report plays an important role tonight in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and P.J. Tucker are all listed as probable yet Tyler Herro is out with a groin injury he suffered on Saturday. Jayson Tatum is probable for the Celtics but Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III are both questionable. Since Smart was able to return to the court and play well after twisting his ankle in the first half on Saturday, one would think he would play tonight. Yet the risk that he does not play or that he re-injures that ankle is one of the reasons we prefer the first-half play with the Celtics. Boston dug themselves a big hole in the first half as they trailed by as many as 26 points at one point before a late rally that had them go into the locker room trailing by a 62-47 margin. The Celtics should get off to a faster start tonight. They have covered the point spread in twenty-three of their last thirty-five games after a loss, and they have covered the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games after getting upset at home in their previous game. In their four previous losses in the postseason, Boston has bounced back with big first halves three times. After losing Game 1 last round against Milwaukee, they responded at home with a 65-40 first half against the Bucks in Game 2. After a Game 5 loss at home to Milwaukee, they went into the locker room in Game 6 at Milwaukee with a 53-43 lead. After losing Game 1 on the road at Miami in this series, they scored 70 first-half points in Game 2 on the road to take a 25-point halftime lead.
The lone exception was in Game 4 of the Bucks series where, after losing Game 3 on the road, they went into the locker room at Milwaukee trailing by 1 point, 48-47. Yet that game still offers insight into how Game 4 tonight against the Heat will play out. Jayson Tatum had one of his worst games in the playoffs on Sunday as he scored only 10 points on 3 of 14 shooting. In Game 3 against the Bucks, he scored 10 points on 4 of 11 shooting. Yet in Game 4 last round, he responded by scoring 30 points, grabbing 13 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists. Boston has taken an average lead of 4.2 points going into halftime in the playoffs, and they have had an average lead of 6.6 points at halftime in their last five games. Miami has only a 1.9-point average halftime lead in the playoffs, and they have been outscored by 1.0 points in the first half in their last five games (even after their 15-point halftime lead on Saturday). The Heat will miss Herro’s 20.7 points per game tonight. They struggled to score points with both Butler and Herro injured in Game 3. Miami’s bench is already stretched thin in this series. The Celtics have posted an offensive rating of 142 in the second quarter in this series. Play Boston minus the points in the first half.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
