Nelly’s Monday Night MLB Side & Total
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Time
- 05/23/2022 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Kansas City bullpen has been a disaster of late with a 6.62 ERA in the past 10 games, getting swept hosting Minnesota over the weekend including an incredibly painful Sunday result with a 6-0 lead blown in the final two innings. The Royals have allowed five or more runs in eight of the past 11 games to hide modest success for the offense of late, particularly vs. right-handers. Zach Davies has posted average results this season in his first season with Arizona but his strikeout rate is down from the past two seasons while his BB/9 is well above his career average. Davies has just a 26 percent CSW% and he has struggled in his last two starts allowing eight runs. Davies has allowed at least two runs in seven of his eight starts and has managed only one quality start all season. Zack Greinke is winless in eight starts in 2022 and his 3.48 ERA hides a great decline in his abilities. While still a savvy veteran pitcher, Greinke has a 3.7 K/9 for by far the worst strikeout rate of his career. Greinke has a CSW% below 25 percent and most ERA estimators place Greinke’s pace a run or more higher than his current solid ERA. Greinke has a 4.43 ERA on the road and while he will be comfortable in this venue as a former Arizona pitcher, the Diamondbacks are heating up on offense. Arizona is batting .260 with 5.6 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. right-handers. Chase Field has been an extremely low scoring ballpark this season with a huge lean ‘under’ but the schedule has played a role and Arizona has been on the road the past eight games. The lower season numbers means a modest total despite two offenses having a lot of recent success vs. right-handers and two of the worst CSW% starters in the NL. The late innings should offer scoring opportunities as well as these teams have two of the worst bullpen results in all of MLB and neither unit will be in ideal form to start the week after a taxing weekend on the relievers.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
