ROGERS' *10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK: 7-2 L9 NBA!
- Handicapper
- Will Rogers
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
- Time
- 05/23/2022 08:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Under 208 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This series continues to be higher scoring than expected, although Game 3 probably should NOT have gone Over the total. There were 22 points scored over the final 81 seconds of the game. That’s pretty ridiculous. The Over is now 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. I think that trend ends tonight.
Miami jumped out to a huge early lead in Game 3 and never trailed, though Boston did get within one in the fourth quarter. Despite that wire to wire win, the Heat look to be at a major disadvantage heading into Game 4 as five key players are listed as questionable, among them Jimmy Butler. The others are Lowry, Tucker, Strus and Herro. I just don’t think Miami is going to score a lot of points tonight.
Bam Adebayo did have 31 on Sunday. But that came after he scored just 16 points total in the first two games and 38 the previous four. Asking him to match, or even exceed his playoff-high (31), seems like asking a lot here.
I also don’t think Boston’s Jaylen Brown is going to offer up a repeat of his Game 3 performance where he scored 40 - ten more than he’s had in any other game in these playoffs.
Coming into this series, we all knew about the defensive prowess of the two teams. Miami is still only giving up 100.6 points per game in the playoffs while Boston is allowing 103.5. The oddsmakers were smart to set low totals for the first three games. But, with the Heat & Celtics now a combined 16-0 Over their last 16 Conf Finals games, I saw the Under is due for a turn.
