Sean Murphy - Fresno State vs UNLV

10* CBB MOUNTAIN WEST CONF. GAME OF THE YEAR!

Handicapper
Sean Murphy
League
NCAAB
Competition
Fresno State vs UNLV
Time
01/14/2022 11:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Unlv +1.5 (-109) (BetRivers)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 11 pm et on Friday. This line has been moving in Fresno State's favor which is not all that surprising ahead of this Mountain West clash on Friday night in Sin City. Fresno State is off to a stellar 13-4 start this season but a closer inspection indicates we should perhaps pump the brakes a little. Note that the Bulldogs rank 228th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule (according to KenPom). Not only that but they sit 354th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While that's not a reason for concern in and of itself, the fact that they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field on the road and average only six made threes per game is. Keep in mind, they continue to play without transfer Jemarl Baker, who was supposed to be a big part of their offense this season and contributed 30 points in only 41 minutes in his final two games before injuring his knee back in December. UNLV is coming off an 85-point explosion in a 29-point rout of New Mexico last time out. The Runnin' Rebels have scored 80+ points in each of their last three games and check in 5-1 SU And 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. The Rebels shouldn't have to approach that lofty point total here noting that the winner in this matchup has reached 68 points or less in each of the last three meetings, with the Rebels winning two of those games (both here at home). Note that UNLV ranks a respectable 125th in the country in terms of strength of schedule. With a tough three-game stretch on the road on deck, earning a victory here is critical for the Rebels. While they're just one game removed from a seven-point loss against San Diego State, I think it's actually impressive that they 'only' lost by seven despite shooting sub-30% from the field. Give them credit for holding each of their last three opponents to 36% or worse shooting. If UNLV can find a way to push the pace a little bit and make the Bulldogs uncomfortable, I'm confident it can find success on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*).

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