Oskeim Sports - Southern Miss vs NC Wilmington

OSKEIM'S COLLEGE HOOPS FALSE FAVORITE BLOWOUT

Handicapper
Oskeim Sports
League
NCAAB
Competition
Southern Miss vs NC Wilmington
Time
11/24/2021 07:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Southern Miss +2.5 (-110) (William Hill)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
My math model actually favors Southern Mississippi in this game and the Golden Eagles are undervalued despite the significant upgrades head coach Jay Ladner made at the point guard position.  Inconsistency at the point was the ultimate downfall for the Golden Eagles in 2020-21 and Ladner wasted no time in addressing those needs during the offseason.  Junior college transfer Walyn Nappier (Dodge City Community College) averaged 20.0 points and 8.0 assists per game last season and gives the Golden Eagles much-needed experience and leadership.  Nappier leads the team in assists (3.3 apg) and has been very good at both running the offense and getting others involved.  Nappier and freshman point guard Rashad Bolden have allowed Southern Mississippi's best two players - Tae Hardy and Jaron Pierre, Jr. - to play their natural positions (wing) and the results have been solid.  Hardy leads the team in scoring (21.3 ppg) on 52.6% shooting from the field, while Pierre (Conference USA all-rookie team) is third with 8.3 points per game.  Pierre's upside is unquestionably high and Ladner believes he has the potential to be one of the best players to ever play at Southern Mississippi. Southern Mississippi's frontcourt is led by junior Tyler Stevenson, who explored transferring after averaging 14.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game in 2020-21.  Stevenson is joined in the frontcourt by St. John's transfer Isih Moore, who averaged 9.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game for the Red Storm.  The talented junior is second on the team in scoring this season with 14.8 points per game on 53.8% shooting from the field.  Returning junior DeAndre Pinckney shot 53.6% from the field last season and gives Ladner another viable option in the frontcourt. Southern Mississippi has played a more difficult schedule to date and enters off an impressive 82-75 win over Lamar as a five-point favorite.  UNC-Wilmington is a money-burning 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall, including 0-4 ATS following a straight-up win.  The Seahawks have struggled to maintain success as evidenced by the fact that they are just 3-11 ATS after winning two of their last three games since the beginning of the 2018-19 season.  Grab the points with Southern Mississippi and invest with confidence.

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