25* MLB NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves
- Time
- 10/23/2021 08:08 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Dodgers -145
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (923) versus the Atlanta Braves (922) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (112-61) pulled within a 3-2 margin in this series on Thursday with their 11-2 victory against the Braves at home. Atlanta (94-76) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Two things happened within the last 12 or so hours that put this 25* side opportunity into play. First, Max Scherzer was pulled as the Dodgers starting pitcher with his continued arm issues. I don’t know how to assess the “dead arm” he claimed to have on Sunday (that, hopefully, is a Tomorrow Problem). Second, with Buehler being tapped as the starting pitcher on three days rest, the money-line price has dropped below my -150 price threshold. I’m not as worried about the short rest — he pitched on three days rest against San Francisco in the NLDS on October 12th where he allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had a 16-4 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts in the regular season. He had a 2.47 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average in 27 starts at night. He has a reliable 3.32 ERA in 13 starts in the postseason. He has a 3.37 ERA in his two starts against Atlanta this season including his 3 2/3 innings against them on Tuesday. Buehler did have seven days off after pitching on three days rest and his start in Game Three of the NLCS. He has thrown just 8 innings since October 8th. The Dodgers should build off the momentum they established on Thursday when they banged five home runs. They have won 4 of their last 5 games after hitting at least five home runs in their last game. They have won 36 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. They have also won 38 of their last 56 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have won 8 of their last 11 games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Atlanta has lost 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least ten runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least eight runs. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 regular season starts. After giving up two runs in 3 innings last Sunday where he allowed three hits and walked three batters, he now has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in his last nine starts this season. He has a 7.40 ERA in 7 1/3 innings against the Dodgers this year. LA also has a bullpen edge tonight — especially coming off the day of rest. The Dodgers have a 3.08 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season — and they have a 2.57 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in their last seven games. The Braves bullpen has a 4.36 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in their last seven games — and they have a 3.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP for the year.
FINAL TAKE: While the Dodgers are dealing with a long list of injuries, they still have superstars like Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Cody Bellinger leading a core of players with tons of deep postseason experience. Atlanta has Freddie Freeman and then younger talent and retreads. It matters. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 7 close-out games in the playoffs. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 potential elimination games in the playoffs (including all three this season). 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (923) versus the Atlanta Braves (922) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
