- Analysis
- My 10* Late-Breaker is on the LA Dodgers at 8:08 ET.
Attention: It sure looks as if Buehler will start for LA but I'm taking no chances. This is an "action" play.
The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS.
The first two games of this series were in Atlanta and the Braves won 3-2 and 6-5, each in walk off fashion. As the series moved to Dodger Stadium, the Braves were in good shape but surely remembered that they led the Dodgers 3-1 in the 2020 NLCS (neutral-site series, played in Arlington, Texas) but saw the Dodgers rally by taking the final three games and then go on to capture their first World Series title since 1988. The Braves entered the 8th inning up 5-2 in Game 3 but lost when the Dodgers made a miraculous comeback. Heading into Game 4, the thought could have been, "Here we go again!" However, the Braves hit four HRs and jumped out to a 5-0 lead and won 9-2!
The Game 5 set up was the following. The Braves sent Max Fried to the mound. He went 17-6 in 2019, despite a 4.02 ERA if they can push the series that far. In 2020's COVID season, he made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, as the Braves won 10 of those 11 starts. Fried made 28 starts in 2021, going 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA, as the team went 18-10. Looking a little closer, the Braves won 10 of his last 11 regular season starts and had now won BOTH of his postseason starts (1.50 ERA). Doing the math is easy, Fried took the mound Thursday with the Braves having won 12 of his last 13 starts, while the Dodgers went with a bullpen game, hoping to get Max Scherzer for a Game 6 on Saturday in Atlanta.
The Dodgers 'lit up' Fried in Game 5 (4.2 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs), in an 11-2 win. LA pounded out 11 hits, including three HRs by Chris Taylor, the hero of LA's wild card win. As for LA's "bullpen game," NINE pitchers allowed just two runs on five hits with nine Ks and not a single walk. The victory sent the series back to Atlanta where Max Scherzer was supposed to start for LA. Ah, the best laid plans.
Scherzer will not make his scheduled start in Game 6. "I would just say my arm was dead," Scherzer, a free agent at season's end, said after that start. "I could tell when I was warming up that it was still tired. Scherzer's replacement for the Dodgers is Walker Buehler, who will square off against Ian Anderson. Buehler taking the ball requires him starting on short rest for the second time in his career, after previously doing so in Game 4 of the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants. Starting anyone outside of Buehler would have morphed Game 6 into a bullpen game for Los Angeles, made more difficult because the Dodgers also staged a bullpen game in Thursday's Game 5.
Buehler's 2.47 ERA in the regular season was the third-best ERA in all of baseball (also owned a 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season). Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs in a 4-0 loss. The Dodgers then brought Buehler back on short rest in Game 4 (down 2-1), for the first time in his career. He delivered 4.1 innings and allowed just one run. The Dodgers would win 7-2 and then beat the Giants 2-1 in Game 5. Buehler started Game 3 in LA and lasted just 3.2 innings, allowing four runs (just two earned).
Ian Anderson starred for Atlanta in last year's playoffs and after a 9-5 season in 2021 (3.58 ERA and 1.24 WHIP) in 24 starts (team was just 13-11), the Braves have won both of his postseason starts. However, he lasted a total of just eight innings (two ERs allowed for a 2.25 ERA). Is Anderson up to the task on the 'BIG stage?' Just the facts, as Joe Friday used to say (I'm really dating myself now). For a FIFTH time in two seasons, the Atlanta Braves will take the field knowing that one victory will launch them into their first World Series in over two decades. Braves fans know all too well that they are 0-4 in their first four tries.
As for the Dodgers, they will take the field having won SEVEN consecutive playoff elimination games (four coming against Atlanta), going back to last year's NLCS. Since the last weekend of the regular season, they have lost Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy and Justin Turner to injury, yet they keep surviving. As I pointed out in taking LA in Game 5, LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season and LA won 106 games to Atlanta's 88. LA led all of MLB in run differential (plus-269 runs), while the Braves owned a differential of plus-134. The Dodgers ARE the better team. The Braves are at home but can they rise to the challenge? Sure they CAN but WILL they? My bet is on the Dodgers and will re-evaluate Sunday for Game 7. See you then.
Once again a reminder. This is an "action" play.
Good luck...Larry
