TOM'S 4* NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Oklahoma State vs Iowa State
- Time
- 10/23/2021 03:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Iowa State -7 (-105)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #384 IOWA ST (-) over Oklahoma State at 3:30 PM EST
With plenty of confidence off back-to-back SU and ATS wins over Kansas and Kansas State, Iowa State will be jacked up and ready for this revenge war. The Cyclones have lost the last two meetings in this series by a combined 10 points and head coach Matt Campbell's troops will be ready to knock the Pokes from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Since the start of the 2015 regular season, ISU has played very well at home against Big 12 foes inking a rewarding 18-10 SU and 19-9 ATS record. In this run tackling an opponent that checks in off a blowout win of eight points or more, the Cyclones improve to solid 10-1 ATS including a golden 10-0 ATS provided they are not favored by -10 or more. There is a powerful Big 12 situation that supports this wager too. Since 1996, Big 12 home dogs or single-digit home favorites that take the field with steam off two or more straight up wins own a reliable 58-33-1 ATS record if they are competing against a conference foe that enters off a pointspread victory. Provided our "play on" host is off two or more ATS wins, this Big 12 situation tightens up to a spectacular 33-10-1 ATS. That's good news for ISU.
Out of the gate with a 6-0 SU (4-1 ATS) mark and entering off last Saturday's upset win at Texas, this is going to be a tough encore for Oklahoma State. For starters, as a guest arriving off a straight up underdog win, the Cowboys have really struggled lately inking a woeful 3-7 SU and 1-8 ATS record in their last 10 games. Also, since 1998, undefeated conference road underdogs at game seven of the season or later hold a soft 9-34 SU and 16-26-1 ATS record provided their opponent takes the field with confidence off a straight up win. If our "play against" side is not off a blowout victory of 28 points or more, this situation falls to a miserable 7-23 SU and 9-20-1 ATS. The Pokes fit both parts of that negative wagering situation.
Defensively, the Cyclones are a rock allowing an average of only 251.3 yards per game (ranked third in the FBS) and Coach Campbell will lean on that stop unit and the arm of senior quarterback Brock Purdy to get this revenge victory. Take Iowa State. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
