25* CFB UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH (12-4 25* run)
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Wake Forest vs Army
- Time
- 10/23/2021 12:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Army +3 (+100)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
