Nelly's Sports - Western Michigan vs Toledo

Nelly’s MAC GOY 21-8 SATURDAY NCAA RUN

Handicapper
Nelly's Sports
League
NCAAF
Competition
Western Michigan vs Toledo
Time
10/23/2021 03:30 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Toledo +2 (-110) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
Considered a serious MAC title threat and perhaps the favorite in the West given that this pairing would be at home, Toledo has struggled with a 3-4 start to the season. The two MAC losses came by the slimmest of margins while the Rockets also nearly won at Notre Dame early in the season. The Rockets soundly defeated Ball State on the road, a team that recently beat Western Michigan by 25 points on the road, as Toledo should not be ruled out for a strong finish in the MAC West despite currently sitting at the bottom of the standings. Toledo is +63 in net scoring this season despite the losing record and this line is not much different than last season’s game in Kalamazoo, a three-point win for Western Michigan but a game where Toledo had a sizable production edge. Western Michigan last won at Toledo in 2015 and the Broncos have only played one MAC road game which was a narrow escape at Buffalo with a big fourth quarter comeback. Toledo is 15th nationally in yards per play defense sitting 1.5 yards per play better than Western Michigan and the Rockets are 13th nationally in opposing QB Rating as Kaleb Eleby will have a hard time matching his current production pace. Eleby has 12 touchdown throws and a strong per attempt average, but he has taken 16 sacks and this should be his toughest assignment since the opening loss to Michigan. Toledo should be able to offer good balance on offense with a rushing attack that has posted 4.5 yards per carry and with the offense getting more comfortable under Dequan Finn after starting the season led by Carter Bradley. Finn is less experienced but has better numbers and is a significant rushing presence as well. Toledo has outrushed three of the past four foes and should be able to keep the rushing totals near even vs. Western Michigan in contrast to most of Western Michigan’s games this season. Winning on the road has been difficult for the Western Michigan program with a 4-8-1 ATS run active while Toledo still holds a meaningful home field edge. No foe has topped 27 points at Toledo in the past two seasons and under Jason Candle the Rockets are 24-7 S/U at home. Everything went right for Western Michigan last week in a bounce back situation for a big win over Kent State, though despite the final score it was a six-point game at halftime. This game will feature a pace and style that will be less comfortable for the Broncos while Toledo is catching a rare home underdog price. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.

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