Nelly's Sports - West Virginia vs TCU

Nelly’s BIG XII BEST BET 72% SATURDAY RUN

Handicapper
Nelly's Sports
League
NCAAF
Competition
West Virginia vs TCU
Time
10/23/2021 07:30 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Tcu -4.5 (-110) (BetRivers)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
TCU has an elite offense and a West Virginia squad with a shaky road track record and one of the worst passing defenses in the nation could have its hands full. Both of these teams sit outside the nation’s top 100 in opposing QB Rating but West Virginia has provided a successful run defense while TCU has not. The passing game seems to be much more impactful for this game as TCU is among the national leaders averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt to tower over West Virginia’s production. Max Duggan is right next to Casey Thompson for the top QB Rating in the conference while Jarrett Doege is towards the bottom of the Big XII in most quarterback statistics. West Virginia is just 2-4 this season and had a goal line stand at the end of the game in the lone FBS win vs. Virginia Tech. The close call vs. Oklahoma was a fortunate result as the Mountaineers posted only 247 yards of offense in that game and West Virginia enters this game having lost seven straight road games while going 3-9 S/U on the road under Neal Brown. One of those wins was in Fort Worth two years ago for the last road win for the program but the Mountaineers were +14 in that game, winning with only 244 yards of offense in a relatively meaningless season finale. TCU has been on the road the past two weeks and had the misfortune of playing Oklahoma last week with the Sooners not tipping their hand about the quarterback situation for a very difficult preparation. TCU lost by 21 but outgained Oklahoma and was in the game until a late Sooners score. West Virginia is averaging only 3.3 yards per rush this season as they do not offer the same potential as the Sooners did. TCU has many of the season’s toughest games out of the way already and deserves credit for narrow losses to a 7-0 SMU team and a Texas team that looks like the second-best team in the Big XII. Turnovers burned TCU vs. Texas in a game they could have won and while West Virginia was off last week, the team is facing a second straight game with long travel after losing by 25 at Baylor in a game that was out of hand quickly. TCU is on a 23-10 S/U run at home off a loss and this is just the second time since 2016 that TCU has been a home favorite of fewer than 7 points, winning by 10 vs. Texas in the last instance. West Virginia has not scored more than 29 points in a road game under Brown and that high mark came at Kansas. This is an elite TCU offense that has posted big numbers though a very difficult schedule and the Mountaineers will have a difficult time keeping pace. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.

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